000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170946
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1005 UTC WED FEB 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
TIGHTENED ACROSS SE MEXICO AND NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
GALE FORCE. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND WILL INCREASE TO STRONG GALE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU.
CURRENTLY MODEL GUIDANCE CAPS WINDS AT 45 KT AT 10-M HOWEVER
WILL NEED TO MONITOR IN CASE MINIMAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS ARE
REACHED. GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO UP TO 15-17 FT.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N89W TO 04N109W TO 03N120W THEN
RESUMES FROM 04N123W TO 04N133W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 107W AND 110W...AND
ALSO FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 120W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH POSITIONED NEAR 25N112W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRI MORNING... INCREASING TO MODERATE
TO FRESH ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
BETWEEN BUILDING HIGH PRES BUILDING NW-W OF THE AREA...AND
TROUGHING OVER NW MEXICO. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E OF 120W
THU...THEN WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT MOVES ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO FRI. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL MOVE E OF 120W BY THU
NIGHT THROUGH FRI...REACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY EARLY FRI
AFTERNOON.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...A SMALL PLUME OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WIND
FLOW IS BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. A STRONGER SURGE
OF GAP WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH
WINDS PEAKING AROUND 30 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT. FRESH TO
STRONG N-NE FLOW IS ALSO EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING THU AFTERNOON...THEN WILL RETURN AND
INCREASE TO 20-30 KT LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 8 FT BY LATE THU NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES PREVAIL S OF
RIDGING N OF 15N...EXCEPT FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 127W AND 136W
WHERE THEY PEAK AT FRESH TO STRONG. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 05N120W TO 00N122W WILL BECOME DIFFUSE
THROUGH TONIGHT. TRADES WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS
THE BASIN BETWEEN 12-24 HOURS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL SPREADING
ALL THE WAY TO NEAR 90W AND THE EQUATOR WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY
THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$
LEWITSKY