000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162155
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC MON FEB 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE ASCAT-B PASS FROM 1628
UTC SHOWED N WINDS TO 30 KT FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER NE MEXICO
AND THE ITCZ TO THE S SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE
FORCE WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING TO 40
KT WED EVENING WHEN STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. WINDS COULD APPROACH STORM FORCE EARLY THU MORNING AS
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ENHANCES THE WIND. SEAS WILL BUILD AS
HIGH AS 14-17 FT DURING THIS PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THU
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DROP TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE
AGAIN AT THAT TIME. LOOKING AHEAD...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N87W TO 04N110W TO 05N134W TO
02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM N OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W-123W. A TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 07N135W
TO 01N137W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FOUND WITHIN 240
NM E OF THE TROUGH FROM 04N-07N AND WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE
TROUGH FROM 02N-04N.

...DISCUSSION...

AN AREA OF ENHANCED TRADE WINDS LIES NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 07N135W TO 01N137W...WITH 20-30 KT NE WINDS SEEN
BY THE 1810 UTC ASCAT-B PASS FROM 06N-15N W OF 130W. CONVECTION
NEAR THIS TROUGH IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. THIS TROUGH
IS THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR 18N135W THAT IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT E TO 120W THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
ENHANCED TRADES WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND SHIFT E BETWEEN 128W AND
137W THROUGH WED BEFORE RETURNING TO W WATERS THU AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER NW WATERS. 

TO THE N...A COLD FRONT NW OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT INTO NW WATERS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A FRESH TO STRONG NW BREEZE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL PERSIST TROUGH WED AFTERNOON WHEN THE FRONT BEGINS TO
WEAKEN. CURRENTLY...NW SWELL IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE LIES ACROSS
WATERS N OF 15N W OF 133W. A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THE SEAS ACROSS N WATERS
TO AS HIGH AS 12-15 FT N OF 29N BETWEEN 127W-136W BY THU
AFTERNOON. 

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE 1534 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT NE
WINDS PERSIST IN THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO UNDER A
TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN THE ITCZ TO THE SW. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD MARKEDLY N OF THE AREA BY EARLY THU MORNING. WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE DURING THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM
OF DRAINAGE FLOW WHILE THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE FRESH TO STRONG
NE WINDS SPREADS WELL DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO TO NEAR 07N95W.
SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 8-10 FT. 

GULF OF PANAMA...THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASE IN RIDGING N OF THE
AREA SHOULD DRIVE A STRONGER PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF
PANAMA AS WELL. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ARE EXPECTED S OF THE
GULF OF PANAMA TO 05N BEGINNING EARLY THU MORNING. THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THU AFTERNOON.

$$
SCHAUER