000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161605
TWDEP 

TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC MON FEB 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...HIGH PRES RIDGING IS IN THE
PROCESS OF BUILDING DOWN ALONG EASTERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS SE MEXICO
BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND LOWER PRES TO THE S. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG VERY RAPIDLY IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN INCREASING TO GALE FORCE LATER THIS
MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SAT MORNING AS THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE WED NIGHT AS THEY
INCREASE TO STRONG GALE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 15-17 FT AT
THAT TIME.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N85W TO 04N110W TO 06N125W TO
01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM S
OF AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 97W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS
BETWEEN 100W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN
122W AND 132W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN
135W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
OCCASIONAL NW WINDS TO 20 KT ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRES OVER BUILDING W OF THE AREA NEAR 26N120W
AND TROUGHING OVER NW MEXICO. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E OF 120W
AND INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WED...THEN STALL AND
BECOME DIFFUSE THU. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT SUBSIDING
TO 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. LOOKING
AHEAD...NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL E OF 120W BY
LATE FRI.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...ONLY A SMALL PLUME OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP
WIND FLOW IS CURRENTLY DIMINISHING. FRESH TO STRONG FLOW WILL
RETURN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED...WITH AN EVEN STRONGER SURGE
EXPECTED BY LATE MON NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS. WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 30 KT LATE WED NIGHT
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT.

ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N134W THROUGH
24N126W TO 18N114W. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE LOCATED TO THE
SW OF THE RIDGING...THE WESTERN TROUGH ALONG 140W FROM 16N TO
26N WHICH IS MOVING W AT 5-10 KT...WHILE THE EASTERN TROUGH
REACHES FROM 11N130W TO 03N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 128W AND 136W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
CONTINUE TO BLOW FROM 08N TO 15N W OF 129W WHERE SEAS ARE ALSO
UP TO 8-12 FT. THE EASTERN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY
TONIGHT AND TRADES WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE
BASIN BETWEEN 24-48 HOURS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL SPREADING ALL
THE WAY TO 92W AND THE EQUATOR WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

$$
CHRISTENSEN