000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160946
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1005 UTC MON FEB 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...HIGH PRES RIDGING IS IN THE
PROCESS OF BUILDING DOWN ALONG EASTERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS SE MEXICO
BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND LOWER PRES TO THE S. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG VERY RAPIDLY IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN INCREASING TO GALE FORCE LATER THIS
MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SAT MORNING AS THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE WED NIGHT AS THEY
INCREASE TO STRONG GALE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 15-17 FT AT
THAT TIME.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N86W TO 06N110W TO 07N125W TO
06N132W THEN RESUMES FROM 03N135W TO 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 15N BETWEEN 105W
AND 110W...AND ALSO FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 126W AND 130W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N TO 06N BETWEEN 112W
AND 115W...AND ALSO FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 123W AND 125W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N134W THROUGH 24N126W TO
18N114W. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE LOCATED TO THE SW OF THE
RIDGING...THE WESTERN TROUGH ALONG 140W FROM 16N TO 26N WHICH IS
MOVING W AT 5-10 KT...WHILE THE EASTERN TROUGH REACHES FROM
11N130W TO 03N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO
20N BETWEEN 128W AND 136W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CONTINUE TO
BLOW FROM 08N TO 15N W OF 129W WHERE SEAS ARE ALSO UP TO 8-12
FT. THE EASTERN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT AND
TRADES WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE BASIN BETWEEN
24-48 HOURS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL SPREADING ALL THE WAY TO 92W
AND THE EQUATOR WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY THROUGH MID-WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30N140W LATER TODAY. THE TAIL END OF
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS WITH
ASSOCIATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST N OF
30N. LARGE ASSOCIATED NW SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NW
CORNER BY WED MORNING WITH SEAS UP TO 12 FT NEAR 30N136W BY LATE
WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY THU
MORNING THEN WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO NW MAINLAND MEXICO.
THE EDGE OF THE NW SWELL WITH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL REACH
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW FLOW HAS DIMINISHED TO MODERATE TO FRESH
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TO PREVAIL BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EXCEPT BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO MODERATE IN
THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE WEAK AND BROAD LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP AND
LINGER. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 3-5 FT AND WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 FT OR
LESS BY WED MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ONLY A SMALL PLUME OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP
WIND FLOW IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING WHICH WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS
MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG FLOW WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WED...WITH AN EVEN STRONGER SURGE EXPECTED BY LATE MON NIGHT AS
THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TIGHTENS. WINDS WILL PEAK
AROUND 30 KT LATE WED NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT.

GULF OF PANAMA...A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT
NORTHERLY WINDS TO PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG DURING THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS WHILE SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
LEWITSKY