000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151547 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN FEB 15 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...RECENT SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER DATA INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE NOW 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF WATERS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...MAINLY SOUTHERLY...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY TUE ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS TO OCCUR. THIS NEXT GALE EVENT LOOKS TO BE QUITE PROLONGED LASTING THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE BY WED NIGHT...THEN AGAIN BY EARLY SAT MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N88W TO 05N95W TO 03N104W TO 04N114W TO 04N130W TO 02N140W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 112W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS ELSEWHERE FROM 02.5N TO 04N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W AND FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 110W AND 118W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 130W...AND FROM 05N TO 07N W OF 138W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UNUSUAL PRES GRADIENT PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS BETWEEN A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS AND SHARP RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 37N132W TO 20N120W. THE WESTERN TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 20N136W TO 14N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 20N E OF TROUGH TO 128W. THE EASTERN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N131W TO 06N132W. LIMITED CONCENTRATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITH THIS TROUGH WITH A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 08N131W. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXES. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL MOVE JUST W OF AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE SECOND ONE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOUR WHILE WEAKENING. AS A RESULT...TRADES WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT...ATTACHED TO A PACIFIC NW LOW PRES...WILL APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA BY TUE NIGHT. THEN...THE FRONT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM 30N134W TO 26N140W BY EARLY WED MORNING...MOVE SE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N ON WED...AND DISSIPATE BY WED EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST N OF THE AREA...BUT A NEW SET OF NW SWELL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE N WATERS...REACHING THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON WED. MIXED SWELL PRIMARILY COMPOSED OF AND DOMINATED BY NW SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT COVERS MOST OF THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF ABOUT 90W. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATER THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF...SPREADING SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THIS WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN OF U.S.. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SW CARIBBEAN AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS DOWNWIND OF THE GULF TO 90W. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THE EVENING HOURS AND INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN UP TO 30 KT BY EARLY THU MORNING. GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DOWNWIND OF THE GULF AND S OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAINLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY WED. $$ GR