000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150954
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1005 UTC SUN FEB 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

W CENTRAL WATERS GALE WARNING...AN UNUSUAL PRES PATTERN
CONTINUES ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS BETWEEN A PAIR OF SURFACE
TROUGHS AND SHARP RIDGING BETWEEN AND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TWO.
THE WESTERN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N132W TO 12N137W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 119W AND 136W.
THE EASTERN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N127W TO 02N132W. LIMITED
CONCENTRATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITH THIS TROUGH. OVERNIGHT
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUING ROUGHLY
FROM 09N TO 17N BETWEEN 128W AND 134W WHERE SEAS ARE LIKELY 10-
14 FT. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE WESTERN TROUGH LOSES DEFINITION. THE
EASTERN TROUGH WILL ALSO BECOME LESS DEFINED DURING THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS AND ASSOCIATED TRADES WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS A RESULT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...RECENT SCATTEROMETER AND
ALTIMETER DATA INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE NOW 20 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF WATERS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS...MAINLY SOUTHERLY...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
AREA BY EARLY TUE ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS TO OCCUR. THIS NEXT GALE EVENT LOOKS TO BE QUITE
PROLONGED LASTING THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
 
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N90W TO 02N103W TO 04N114W TO
02N126W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 106W AND 120W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

MIXED SWELL PRIMARILY COMPOSED OF AND DOMINATED BY NW SWELL WITH
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT COVERS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION WATERS W
OF ABOUT 90W. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH MID-WEEK.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW CURRENTLY
PREVAILS UNDER INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING JUST E OF THE GULF
ALONG NW MAINLAND MEXICO AS WELL AS TO THE W OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. RIDGING EXTENDS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE
TROUGHS. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATER THIS MORNING
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE FAR
NORTHERN GULF...SPREADING SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE LENGTH
OF EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA WHILE BROAD LOW PRES IS SW OF CENTRAL
AMERICA IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
TWO COMBINED WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW SUPPORTS FRESH TO
STRONG NE FLOW DOWNWIND OF THE GULF TO 90W. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY THE EVENING THEN WILL RETURN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING YET AGAIN BRIEFLY TUE EVENING BEFORE
RETURNING LATE TUE NIGHT.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
DOWNWIND OF THE GULF AND S OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY TUE. WINDS WILL THEN
PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG YET AGAIN LATE TUE NIGHT.

$$
LEWITSKY