000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150321 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON FEB 15 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...NORTHERLY 20 TO 30 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MON INTO MON EVENING. A 20-25 KT NORTHERLY SURGE WILL BEGIN MON NIGHT AND GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUE REACHING MINIMAL GALE STRENGTH AROUND SUNSET ON TUE. THE GALE WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO 30-40 KT ON THU...AND CONTINUE AT GALE FORCE THROUGH SUNRISE ON FRI. CONDITIONS MAY DIMINISH BRIEFLY BELOW GALE ON FRI AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ FORMS NEAR 04N90W AND EXTENDS W TO 03N103W...THEN NW TO 06N123W...THEN SW TO BEYOND 00N133W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 03N90W TO 03N102W TO 04N108W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF 02N139.5W. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N127W TO 14N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF THE ITCZ AND WITHIN 420 NM E OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 03N90W TO 03N102W TO 04N108W AND ALSO N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 75 NM OF 02N139.5W. ...DISCUSSION... ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 23N120W TO 15N102W. MODERATE TO NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 110-120W THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH LIGHT N WINDS EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE NEAR 21N110W ON TUE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS W OF 105W THROUGH WED. A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 24N ON WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PAC WATERS BETWEEN 107-120W WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON MON WITH 4-6 FT SEAS EXPECTED ON TUE...3-5 FT SEAS ON WED THEN BUILDING 4-7 FT ON THU BEHIND THE TROUGH...WITH 6-9 FT SEAS PROPAGATING E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 22N ON FRI. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 97-105W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONDITIONS NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF 97W. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO STRONG N OF 30N BRIEFLY ON MON. THE NW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WATERS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK. S OF 15N E OF 110W...FRESH NE-E WINDS DOMINATE THE AREA W OF 93W AND ALSO DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. ANOTHER NE 20-30 SURGE IS FORECAST TONIGHT WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 12N86W TO 09.5N90W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA W OF 95W ON MON NIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN SUBSIDING SWELL. STRONG NE SURGES EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EACH NIGHT WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING NEAR GALE CONDITIONS ON THU AND FRI NIGHTS. ANOTHER GALE WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON TUE EVENING WITH STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA N OF 13N BETWEEN 94-97W BY WED...WITH THE TONGUE OF STRONG WINDS SPREADING S TO NEAR 10N100W ON THU. SEAS FROM BOTH GAP EVENTS WILL MERGE AGAIN WITH 7-11 FT SEAS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 93W LATE IN THE WEEK. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG ABOUT 04N TONIGHT... THEN BEGIN AGAIN ON THU NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 9 FT NEAR 06N81W. ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH HAS A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION CURRENTLY FROM 11N136W TO 21N132W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITHIN 390 NM E OF THE TROUGH. STRONG TO NEAR FORCE NE-E WINDS ARE OBSERVED FROM 15-22N BETWEEN 122-140W WITH SEAS OF 10-14 FT. ANOTHER LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 05N127W TO 14N120W. STRONG NE WINDS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 300 NM NW OF LINE FROM 07N136W TO 12N118W WITH SEAS OF 12-17 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATE TONIGHT AND MON...WITH MOSTLY MODERATE NE-E WINDS EXPECTED...EXCEPT STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE JUST W OF THE DISSIPATING SOUTHERNMOST TROUGH THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. MIXING SWELL RESULTING IN 8 TO 11 FT COMBINED SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE EARLY THIS WEEK. EXPECT A W TO E ORIENTATED RIDGE FROM 25N140W TO 25N120W ON TUE NIGHT WITH A TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE RIDGE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NW FLOW N OF 30N W OF THE FRONT LATE TUE NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW SWELL IN THE FORM OF 8-14 FT SEAS WILL PROPAGATE E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 22N ON WED-FRI. $$ NELSON