000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091507
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON FEB 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS S-SE ALONG THE
EASTERN MEXICO COAST THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE PRESENTLY STORM FORCE AND WILL DIMINISH TO
BELOW STORM FORCE LEVELS BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY APPROACH
50 KT AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. MAXIMUM SEAS WITH EACH OF
THESE NIGHT TIME PULSES OF WIND WILL BUILD TO 18-20 FT. EXPECT
STRONG GALES TO AT LEAST 40 KT TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
LARGE NE SWELL EXTENDING FAR BEYOND ITS SOURCE REGION THAT WILL
MERGE WITH SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT
TO CREATE HIGH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT EXTENDING WELL BEYOND 110W
THROUGH FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SPILL THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND ACCELERATE
DOWNWIND ACROSS PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN
MEXICO. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA REMAINS TIGHT
PRODUCING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO AREA DUE TO
MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW PEAKING IN INTENSITY THROUGH LATE MORNING.
THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PULSE EACH LATE NIGHT/ EARLY MORNING
OTHERWISE NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH BRIEF PERIODS TO 30 KT ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WATERS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS E
OF 90W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA. THIS PROLONGED STRONG
GAP WIND EVENT IS GENERATING A VERY LARGE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT
SEAS THAT WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA S OF 12N BETWEEN 90W-
110W FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...          
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N88W TO 05N104W TO 04N120W TO 06N128W TO
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N
BETWEEN 100W AND 108W... AND FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN 108W AND
132W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                               
A SLOWLY WEAKENING RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS GENERALLY W OF 115W. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER
PRES NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO OCCASIONAL
STRONG NW WINDS GENERALLY N OF 30N IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WITH SEAS REMAINING LESS THAN 8 FT. THE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE E PACIFIC HIGH IS ALSO MAINTAINING AN
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 135W
WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS
RELATIVELY SMALL AREA BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND ITCZ REGION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH NW SWELL PRODUCING SEAS RANGING FROM 8 FT
TO 13 FT AT THE NW CORNER NEAR 30N140W. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. A NEW FRONT WILL ENTER THE
NW CORNER ON THU WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS HOWEVER NW SWELL WILL
REMAIN 10 TO 15 FT. 

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE GULF OF
PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 02N-04N BETWEEN 78W-82W THROUGH MID-
WEEK WITH MAX SEAS REACHING TO 9 FT.

$$
FORMOSA