000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072218 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT FEB 07 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO...AS A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDS FROMTHE N CENTRAL GULF SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS CONTINUES TO GENERATE STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 11.5N97.5W. WINDS HERE HAS JUST DIMINISHED FROM 30-50 KT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SEAS WITHIN THIS ZONE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS 22 FT. EXPECT THE STRONG GULF OF MEXICO RIDGING TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG GALES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO MINIMAL GALES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. SEAS JUST DOWNWIND OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 12- 13 FT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER STRONG REINFORCING RIDGE WILLBUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT TO PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING TO NEAR 22 FT. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TO STRONG GALES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERSIST AT MODERATE TO STRONG GALES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE NE SWELL EXTENDING FAR BEYOND ITS SOURCE REGION THAT WILL MERGE WITH SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EVENT TO CREATE HIGH MIXED SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT EXTENDING WELL BEYOND 110W. GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND ACCELERATE DOWNWIND ACROSS THE PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. A LARGE PLUME OF WINDS CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND ADJACENT NICARAGUAN AND COSTA RICAN OFFSHORE WATERS TO 06.5N93W...WITH MAX WINDS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 30 KT. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND ENHANCE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TO 35 AND POSSIBLY 40 KT. BRIEF GALES ARE ALSO SUGGESTED BY COMPUTER MODELS THIS EVENING THROUGH THE GULF OF FONSECA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND EXTEND WILL OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY. GALES ARE THEN FORECAST TO RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS PROLONGED STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IS GENERATING A VERY LARGE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS THAT WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 88W-110W THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N87W TO 03N110W TO 5.5N126W TO BEYOND04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FROM 02.5N TO 05N BETWEEN 92W AND98W...AND FROM 07.5N TO 11N BETWEEN 112W AND 119W. ...DISCUSSION... A SLOWLY WEAKENING RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS GENERALLY W OF 120W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MAX SEAS ARE AROUND 8 FT BETWEEN 25N-26N. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS TO PERSIST IN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF AND N OF 30N THROUGH TUE. THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE E PACIFIC HIGH ALSO MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 15-16N...AND W OF 115W BASED ON MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA...WHICH IS SUPPORTING 9-11 FT SEAS. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8-10 FT GENERALLY S OF 13N W OF 110W. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30N140W MON MORNING WITH NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW PART OF THE AREA TODAY. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 26N AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-13 FT AS THE FRONT REMAINS IN FAR NW PORTION MON...THEN WEAKENS TUE. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 02N-04N THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9-11 FT NEAR 06N81W BY MON AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF 25- 30 KT WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE WATERS S-SE OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA EACH NIGHT THROUGH TUE. $$ STRIPLING