000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050949
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI FEB 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS HAVE INCREASED TO STORM FORCE
PER A PRIOR 04/2225 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS ACROSS THE REGION SHOWING
WINDS TO 50 KT. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST STORM FORCE WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 05/1800 UTC AND DIMINISH TO 40-45 KT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SEAS JUST DOWNWIND OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL
BUILD TO 21 FT OR GREATER INTO EARLY FRI WHILE THE NE SWELL
GENERATED FROM THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL PROPAGATE WELL AWAY FROM
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG GALES TO NEAR 45 KT THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING FURTHER
STRENGTHENING OF WINDS...AND AGAIN REACH STORM FORCE SAT EVENING
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL REINFORCING FRONTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND SAT...WITH THE
RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT LIKELY TO MAINTAIN GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 450 NM OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO
COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO TO
PRODUCE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE FULL LENGTH OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA...WITH SMALL LOCALIZED AREAS TO 30 KT EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. A RECENT 05/0000 UTC
RAPIDSCAT PASS SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS
JUST DOWNWIND OF THE TIBURON BASIN...RESULTING IN THE CURRENT
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE IN THE
RANGE OF 8-11 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE AROUND MIDDAY FRI...AND THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY RESPOND BY SUBSIDING
THROUGH SUN MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N85W TO 03N94W TO 04N104W TO 05N132W TO
02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 05N
BETWEEN 85W AND 90W...WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
02N99W TO 04N104W...AND FROM 04N TO 08N W OF 113W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                
-HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 33N128W AND EXTENDS A
RIDGE SE TO 15N106W AND ALSO SW TO BEYOND 27N140W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 24N AND W OF 117W. NW SWELL IS
MIXING WITH NE WIND WAVES ACROSS THIS AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS
MAINLY IN THE 9 TO 13 FT RANGE. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN INTACT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE BROAD AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE AREA. DOWNSTREAM SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FT BY
FRI AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT IS ALSO BRINGING
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO 8 FT FRIDAY....AND TO 10 FT LATE SATURDAY.
 
$$
HUFFMAN