000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050344
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC FRI FEB 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING...WITH A 2225 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS ACROSS THE REGION
SHOWING WINDS TO 50 KT...AND A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT.
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST STORM FORCE WINDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AND DIMINISH TO 40-45 KT BY AROUND NOON TIME FRIDAY. SEAS JUST
DOWNWIND OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL BUILD TO 20 FT OR GREATER INTO
EARLY FRI WHILE THE NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THIS GAP WIND EVENT
WILL PROPAGATE WELL AWAY FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG GALES TO
NEAR 45 KT THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF WINDS...AND AGAIN REACH
STORM FORCE SAT EVENING. ADDITIONAL REINFORCING FRONTS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND SAT...WITH THE RESULTING
PRESSURE GRADIENT LIKELY TO MAINTAIN GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS
TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 300 NM OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO
COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO TO
PRODUCE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE FULL LENGTH OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA...WITH LARGE AREAS TO 30 KT EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. A 0000 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS
SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS JUST DOWNWIND OF
THE TIBURON BASIN...AND A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. THESE
WINDS ARE ALSO FILTERING ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA MOUNTAIN PASSES INTO THE OFFSHORE
PACIFIC WATERS OUT AS FAR AS 120 NM OFFSHORE. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO
8-11 FT INSIDE THE GULF IN THE PAST 12 HOURS AND WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE
AROUND MIDDAY FRI...AND THEN PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM  04N85W TO 05N98W TO 04.5N120W TO BEYOND
03.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 85W AND 96W...AND FROM 04N TO 08N W
OF 114W.  
 
...DISCUSSION...                                           
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 34N127W AND EXTENDS A
RIDGE SE TO 14N105W AND ALSO SW TO BEYOND 27N140W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 22N AND W OF 118W. NW SWELL IS
MIXING WITH NE WIND WAVES OVER THIS AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS MAINLY
IN THE 8 TO 14 FT RANGE. HOWEVER...RECENT ALTIMETER DATA
INDICATE ADDITIONAL PULSE OF NW SWELL PRODUCING SEAS OF 12 TO 15
FT PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NW WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM 30N120W
TO 22N140W. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN TACT AND CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 TO
30 KT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE AREA. DOWNSTREAM SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FT BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO BRING
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT FRIDAY....AND TO 9 FT SATURDAY.
 
$$
STRIPLING