000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC THU FEB 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS ARE PRODUCING STRONG GALE
FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS AFTERNOON. 1600
UTC ASCAT WIND DATA ACROSS THE AREA SHOWED WINDS TO 40 KT...
WHILE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST WINDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS
EVENING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE FRI MORNING WHILE SEAS
BUILD TO 20 FT OR GREATER INTO EARLY FRI. THE NE SWELL GENERATED
FROM THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL PROPAGATE WELL AWAY FROM THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW STORM FORCE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN STRONG GALES TO NEAR 45 KT THROUGH
SAT AFTERNOON. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING...WITH STORM FORCE WINDS BEGINNING AGAIN SAT
EVENING. WITH ADDITIONAL REINFORCING FRONTS EXPECTED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND SAT...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A LONG LIVED
GALE FORCE GAP WINDS EVENT...LIKELY PERSISTING INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N84W TO 06.5N97W TO 05N110W TO 03.5N130W
TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
NOTED FROM 02N TO06N E OF 82W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN
113W AND 128W...AND FROM 04N TO 08N W OF 130W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...                                            
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1031 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 33N127W AND EXTENDS A
RIDGE SE TO 14N105W AND ALSO SW TO BEYOND 27N140W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A TROUGH OF
LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA...WITH AREAS TO 30 KT. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO
FILTERING ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
BAJA PASSES INTO THE OFFSHORE PACIFIC WATERS OUT AS FAR AS 150
NM OFFSHORE. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 8-11 FT INSIDE THE GULF TODAY.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY PERSIST OVER THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 23N AND W OF 115W. NW SWELL IS
MIXING WITH NE WIND WAVES OVER THIS AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS MAINLY
IN THE 8 TO 13 FT RANGE. HOWEVER...RECENT ALTIMETER DATA
INDICATE ADDITIONAL PULSE OF NW SWELL PRODUCING SEAS OF 12 TO 16
FT PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NW WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM 30N122W
TO 23N140W. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN TACT AND CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 TO
30 KT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE AREA. DOWNSTREAM SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FT BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO BRING
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT FRIDAY....AND TO 10 FT SATURDAY.
 
$$
STRIPLING