000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041603 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC THU FEB 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS ARE PRODUCING GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...REACHING
STORM FORCE BY THIS EVENING. THE STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE FRI MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
GREATER THAN 20 FT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. THE NE SWELL
GENERATED FROM THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL PROPAGATE WELL AWAY FROM
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DROP
BELOW STORM FORCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...A REINFORCING FRONT
WILL LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL STORM FORCE WINDS BEGINNING SAT
EVENING. AND...WITH ADDITIONAL REINFORCING FRONTS EXPECTED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND SAT...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A FAIRLY
LONG LIVED GALE FORCE GAP WINDS EVENT...LIKELY PERSISTING INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N84W TO 06N95W...AND RESUMES W OF A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 06N99W TO 03N120W TO 02N140W. THE SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N95W TO 02N99W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W...AND WITHIN
360 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF 133W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 200 NM OF WITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND
116W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...                                            

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1031 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N126W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SE TO 16N108W AND ALSO SW TO BEYOND 27N140W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A TROUGH OF
LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO FILTERING ACROSS THE PENINSULA
AND THROUGH SOUTHERN BAJA PASSES INTO THE OFFSHORE PACIFIC
WATERS TO NEAR 22N111W. THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXTENDING OUT
OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA EXTEND S TO THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF
CABO CORRIENTES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. 

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 23N AND W OF 113W. NW SWELLS ARE
MIXING WITH NE WIND WAVES OVER THIS AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS MAINLY
IN THE 8 TO 12 FT RANGE. HOWEVER...RECENT ALTIMETER DATA
INDICATE ADDITIONAL PULSE OF NW SWELL OF 12 TO 16 FT IS
PROPAGATING INTO THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W.
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN TACT AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE BROAD
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR
GALE FORCE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH
OF THE AREA. DOWNSTREAM SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FT BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO BRING
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT FRIDAY....AND TO 10 FT SATURDAY.
 
$$
LATTO