000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040904
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC THU FEB 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS ARE PRODUCING GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...REACHING
STORM FORCE BY THIS EVENING. THE STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE FRI MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO GREATER THAN 20 FT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. THE NE SWELL
GENERATED FROM THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL PROPAGATE WELL AWAY FROM
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WITH REINFORCING FRONTS EXPECTED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A FAIRLY LONG LIVED
GALE FORCE GAP WINDS EVENT...LIKELY PERSISTING INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N87W TO 05N110W TO 02N125W TO 02N135W TO
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 98W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED  FROM 05N TO 08N W OF 133W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                            

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1032 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N125W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SE TO 14N105W AND ALSO SW TO BEYOND 28N140W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH
SMALL ISOLATED AREAS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO
FILTERING ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND THROUGH SOUTHERN BAJA PASSES
INTO THE OFFSHORE PACIFIC WATERS TO NEAR 20N111W. THE FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS EXTENDING OUT OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA EXTEND S TO
THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF CABO CORRIENTES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. 

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 24N AND W OF 112W. NW SWELLS ARE
MIXING WITH NE WIND WAVES OVER THIS AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS IN THE
8 TO 12 FT RANGE. THE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS
WILL PERSIST MAINTAIN THIS BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A NEW PULSE OF LARGE NW
SWELL HAS MOVED INTO THE NW WATERS WITH SEAS REACHING NEAR 15
FT. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR
GALE FORCE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH
OF THE AREA. DOWNSTREAM SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO BRING
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT FRIDAY.
 
$$
AL