000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040331 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU FEB 04 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...CURRENTLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SPILL ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... WITH SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. HOWEVER MARINE CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO RAPIDLY FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...QUICKLY REACHING STRONG GALES EARLY THU. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THURSDAY...REACHING STORM FORCE BY THU EVENING...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO GREATER THAN 20 FT THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WITH THE FRESH NE SWELL PROPAGATING WELL AWAY FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT GALES MAY PERSIST ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N88W TO LOW PRES NEAR 06N94W TO 05N105W TO 06N117W TO 06N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W...FROM 05.5N TO 08N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W...FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 108W AND 113W...FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 114W AND 122W...AND FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 118W AND 120W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 30N126W THIS EVENING AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH 20N113W TO 13N102W AND ALSO SW TO BEYOND 27N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH SMALL ISOLATED AREAS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO VEERING N TO NE AND FILTERING ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND THROUGH SOUTHERN BAJA PASSES INTO THE OFFSHORE PACIFIC WATERS TO NEAR 21N111W. MEANWHILE THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SPILLING OUT OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA EXTEND S TO THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF CABO CORRIENTES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. BY FRIDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT NW AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH VERY SLIGHTLY WITHIN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 24N AND W OF 112W. NW SWELLS ARE MIXING WITH NE WIND WAVES OVER THIS AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS IN THE 8 TO 12 FT RANGE. THE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL PERSIST AND ACT TO MAINTAIN THE BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A NEW PULSE OF LARGE NW SWELL IS MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS TONIGHT... WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10-16 FT ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON. A STRONGER AND MORE EXPANSIVE GAP WIND EVENT IS ANTICIPATED THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS HIGH PRES RIDGING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA INTENSIFIES. DOWNSTREAM SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT BY FRI AFTERNOON. GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO THE NW WILL ALSO IMPACT THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH FRESH TO STRONG FLOW EXPECTED TO BEGIN PULSING TONIGHT. A MORE IMPRESSIVE SURGE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 FT BY LATE THU NIGHT. $$ STRIPLING