000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032204 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED FEB 03 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION...WITH SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. HOWEVER MARINE CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WILL ALLOW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO RAPIDLY FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...QUICKLY REACHING STRONG GALES LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY...REACHING STORM FORCE BY THU EVENING WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO GREATER THAN 20 FT TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WITH THE FRESH NE SWELL PROPAGATING WELL AWAY FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT GALES MAY PERSIST ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N88W TO LOW PRES NEAR 06N94W TO 05N105W TO 06N117W TO 06N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W...FROM 05.5N TO 08N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W...FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 108W AND 113W...FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 114W AND 122W...AND FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 118W AND 120W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 30N127W THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH 20N113W TO 13N102W AND ALSO SW TO BEYOND 27N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND TROUGHING ACROSS MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH SMALL ISOLATED AREAS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO VEERING N TO NE AND FILTERING ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND THROUGH SOUTHERN BAJA PASSES INTO THE OFFSHORE PACIFIC WATERS TO 21N111W. MEANWHILE THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SPILLING OUT OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA EXTEND S TO THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF CABO CORRIENTES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WHILE EXPANDING TO COVER THE ENTIRE GULF AS THE TROUGHING DEEPENS AND EXPANDS TO THE NW. NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND FILTER THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA PASSES DURING THIS TIME. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 22N AND W OF 112W. NW SWELLS ARE MIXING WITH NE WIND WAVES OVER THIS AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS IN THE 8 TO 13 FT RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL PERSIST AND ACT TO MAINTAIN THE BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A NEW PULSE OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL REACH THE NW WATERS TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO UP TO 16 FT NEAR 30N140W. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...DIMINISHING BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON. A STRONGER AND MORE EXPANSIVE GAP WIND EVENT IS ANTICIPATED THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS HIGH PRES RIDGING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA INTENSIFIES. DOWNSTREAM SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT BY FRI AFTERNOON. GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO THE NW WILL ALSO IMPACT THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH FRESH TO STRONG FLOW EXPECTED TO BEGIN PULSING TONIGHT. A MORE IMPRESSIVE SURGE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 FT BY LATE THU NIGHT. $$ STRIPLING