000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031521
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC WED FEB 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...CURRENTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS HOWEVER MARINE CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY FUNNEL
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...
QUICKLY REACHING STRONG GALE LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE REACHING STORM FORCE BY THU EVENING WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO GREATER
THAN 20 FT TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WITH THE FRESH NE SWELL
PROPAGATING WELL AWAY FROM THE SOURCE REGION. SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N92W TO LOW PRES NEAR 06N94W TO
05N105W TO 06N117W TO 06N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W...FROM 06N TO
08N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W...FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 108W AND
113W...FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 114W AND 122W...AND ALSO FROM 01N
TO 03N BETWEEN 118W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...                                            

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1027 MB NEAR 30N126W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH
20N113W TO 15N105W AND ALSO SW TO BEYOND 25N140W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND TROUGHING ACROSS
MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
THESE WINDS ARE FILTERING THROUGH SOUTHERN BAJA PASSES INTO THE
OFFSHORE PACIFIC WATERS TO 21N111W...WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
ALSO OFFSHORE OF CABO CORRIENTES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WHILE EXPANDING TO
COVER THE ENTIRE GULF AS THE TROUGHING DEEPENS AND EXPANDS TO
THE NW...WITH ADDITIONAL FILTERING THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA PASSES ALSO EXPECTED. 

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A
BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 20N AND W
OF 112W. NW SWELLS ARE MIXING WITH NE WIND WAVES OVER THIS AREA
TO PRODUCE SEAS IN THE 8 TO 11 FT RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS WILL MAINTAIN THE BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A NEW PULSE OF
LARGE NW SWELL WILL REACH THE NW WATERS TONIGHT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO UP TO 16 FT NEAR 30N140W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH
TO STRONG IN THE GULF TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...DIMINISHING BY
EARLY THU AFTERNOON. A STRONGER AND MORE EXPANSIVE GAP WIND
EVENT IS ANTICIPATED THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS HIGH PRES
RIDGING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA INTENSIFIES. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-9
FT BY SUNRISE FRI.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WHICH WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO THE NW WILL ALSO
IMPACT THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH FRESH TO STRONG FLOW EXPECTED TO
PULSE TONIGHT. A MORE IMPRESSIVE SURGE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 FT BY LATE THU NIGHT.
 
$$
LEWITSKY