000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030911
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC WED FEB 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         

A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND
REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BRINGING A RAPID ONSET TO THE GAP WIND EVENT LATE
TONIGHT. MARINERS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD EXPECT A
RAPID DETERIORATION IN MARINE CONDITIONS AS WINDS INCREASE FROM
LIGHT TO GENTLE WESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING TO GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS LATER TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER
INCREASE TO STORM FORCE THU NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING ABOVE 20
FT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/ FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06.5N89W TO 04N107W TO 06N118W TO 04N124W
TO06N130W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 91W AND 101W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 113W AND 121W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                            

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 31N127W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 15N106W AND SW TO BEYOND 26N140W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
LARGE NW SWELL GENERATING SEAS OF 10-13 FT CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR OUT TO 120W...RESULTING IN HIGH SEAS AND
DANGEROUS SURF...WITH ROUGH SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8 FT INSIDE THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 26N. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH
WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF TO
30N BY THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS TO 8 FT ACROSS THE S PORTION OF
THE GULF WILL BUILD TO 8-11 FT ON THU.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A
BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 20-22N AND
W OF 116W. NW SWELLS ARE MIXING WITH THE NE WIND WAVES OVER THIS
AREA TO PRODUCE SEAS IN THE 8 TO 11 FT RANGE COVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN WATERS N OF 04N AND W OF 111W. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS WILL MAINTAIN THE BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NEW PULSE OF LARGE
NW SWELL WILL REACH THE NW WATERS TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP
TO 14 FT.
 
$$
AL