000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030337
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC WED FEB 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW REACHING THE SW
GULF OF MEXICO AND CHIVELA PASS WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE NEXT GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO BEGIN
AROUND 0600 UTC THU AND QUICKLY STRENGTHENING TO NEAR 45 KT BY
1800 UTC THU AFTERNOON...WITH STORM FORCE WIND CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE THU DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/
FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05.5N86W TO 06N96W TO 03N112W TO
04N119W TO 05N138W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 180 NM S OF AXIS
BETWEEN 91W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
NOTED FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 112W AND 121W.

...DISCUSSION...                                            
A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31N127W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SE
TO 13N103W AND SW TOWARDS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFFSHORE OF
THE WESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
LARGE NW SWELL GENERATING SEAS OF 10-14 FT CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE THROUGH THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OUT TO 120W...RESULTING IN HIGH SEAS
AND DANGEROUS SURF...WITH ROUGH SEAS PRESENTLY BUILDING TO 6-8
FT INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 26N. THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL SHIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND WEAKEN VERY
SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
20-30 KT ACROSS BOTH E AND W SIDES OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD WITHIN THE
GULF TO 30N BY THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS TO 8 FT ACROSS S PORTIONS
OF THE GULF THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TONIGHT TO 8-10 FT ACROSS S
PORTIONS AND REACH 8-11 FT ON THU.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A
BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 20-22N AND
W OF 111W. NW SWELLS ARE MIXING WITH THE NE WIND WAVES THERE TO
PRODUCE SEAS IN THE 8 TO 11 FT RANGE COVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
WATERS N OF 05N AND W OF 113W. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE
BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NEW PULSE OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL REACH THE NW WATERS
BY WED NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 14 FT.

GAP WINDS...A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE TYPICAL GAP WIND ZONES OF CENTRAL AMERICA THIS
EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE W CARIBBEAN WED
AND INCREASE GAP WINDS SLIGHTLY WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WINDS
MAY REACH 25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING THU AFTERNOON.
 
$$
STRIPLING