000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC TUE FEB 02 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW REACHING THE SW
GULF OF MEXICO AND CHIVELA PASS WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE NEXT GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO BEGIN
AROUND 0600 UTC THU AND QUICKLY STRENGTHENING TO NEAR 45 KT BY
1800 UTC THU AFTERNOON...WITH STORM FORCE WIND CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/ FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05.5N86W TO
06N97W TO 02N127W...WHERE IT BREAKS...THEN RESUMES FROM NEAR
05N136W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN
90W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM
01.5N TO 07N BETWEEN 114W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION...                                            

A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31N128W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SE
TO 13N103W AND SW TOWARDS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFFSHORE OF
THE WESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
LARGE NW SWELL GENERATING SEAS OF 10-15 FT CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE TOWARD AND IMPACT THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OUT TO 120W...RESULTING IN HIGH
AND DANGEROUS SURF...WITH ROUGH SEAS PREVAILING INSIDE THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT EVER SO
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND WEAKEN VERY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 20-30 KT ACROSS BOTH E AND W
SIDES OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT...THEN
SPREAD NORTHWARD WITHIN THE GULF TO 30N BY THURSDAY MORNING.
SEAS APPROACHING 8 FT ACROSS S PORTIONS OF THE GULF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BUILD TONIGHT TO 8-10 FT ACROSS S PORTIONS AND
REACH 8-11 FT ON THU.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A
BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 21N AND W
OF 120W. NW SWELLS ARE MIXING WITH THE NE WIND WAVES THERE TO
PRODUCE SEAS IN THE 8 TO 11 FT RANGE COVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
WATERS N OF 05N AND W OF 113W. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE
BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A NEW PULSE OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL REACH THE NW WATERS
BY WED NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 14 FT.
 
$$
STRIPLING