000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021534
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE FEB 02 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW REACHING THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND CHIVELA PASS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT
WILL BEGIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY WITH GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BY
04/1200 UTC AND QUICKLY STRENGTHENING TO POSSIBLE STORM FORCE
CONDITIONS BY 04/1800 UTC JUST BEYOND THE 48 HOUR FORECAST. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/
FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N87W TO
06N95W TO 02N110W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 03N126W TO 02N140W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 113W AND 120W...AND S OF
07N BETWEEN 121W AND 128W

...DISCUSSION...                                               
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB CENTERED NEAR 31N130W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SE TO 15N108W AND SW TO BEYOND 28N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MEXICO
IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO OCCASIONAL WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE WESTERN
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LARGE NW SWELL OF 10-14 FT
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE TOWARD AND IMPACT THE COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA RESULTING IN ROUGH AND DANGEROUS SURF. THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS WHILE THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FILLS SLIGHTLY OVER MEXICO.
THIS WILL RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. 

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A
BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 23N AND W
OF 120W. NW SWELLS WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 11 FT RANGE COVER MUCH
OF THE WESTERN WATERS N OF 05N AND W OF 113W. THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN THE BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NE WINDS WAVES WILL MERGE WITH NW SWELL
ACROSS THIS BROAD AREA OF TRADE WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 11
FT RANGE. A NEW SET OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL REACH THE NW WATERS
BY WED NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 14 FT.
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LOOSENED ENOUGH
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR
LESS ACROSS ALL THE GULF EXCEPT A SMALL AREA N OF 30N AND FROM
22N TO 25N. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 KT ACROSS THE LENGTH OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION. THESE FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PASSAGES.

$$
HUFFMAN