000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020916
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC TUE FEB 02 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N87W TO 06N98W TO 04N109W TO 04N123W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 06N130W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 91W AND 102W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 126W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 126W AND 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1031 MB CENTERED NEAR 32N131W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SE TO 16N109W AND SW TO BEYOND 28N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE WATERS W OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. LARGE NW SWELL OF 12-16 FT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE
TOWARD AND IMPACT THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
RESULTING IN ROUGH AND DANGEROUS SURF. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN WHILE THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FILLS
SLIGHTLY OVER MEXICO. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF
THE WESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BELOW 25 KT BY TUESDAY. 

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A
BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO 25N AND W
OF 118W. NW SWELLS WITH SEAS IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE COVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN WATERS N OF 05N AND W OF 110W. THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN THE BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NE WINDS WAVES WILL MERGE WITH NW SWELL
OVER THIS BROAD AREA OF TRADEWINDS WIGHT SEAS IN THE 8 TO 11 FT
RANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NEW SET OF LARGE NW SWELL
WILL REACH THE NW WATERS BY WED NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO
15 FT. 
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LOOSENED ENOUGH
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR
LESS ACROSS ALL THE GULF EXCEPT BETWEEN 23N AND 25N. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 25 KT OVER THE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN REGION. THESE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FUNNEL
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PASSAGES.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A STRONG GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE
GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED
EVENING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BRINGING A RAPID ONSET TO THE
GAP WIND EVENT LATE WED NIGHT. MARINERS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD EXPECT A RAPID DETERIORATION IN MARINE
CONDITIONS AS WINDS INCREASE FROM LIGHT TO GENTLE WESTERLY WINDS
WED EVENING TO STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE EARLY THU MORNING...AND MAY REACH STORM FORCE THU NIGHT. 

GULF OF PANAMA...MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
AL