000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020327
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE FEB 02 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N88W TO 07N95W TO 04N110W TO
04N120W TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR 06N130W TO 01N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 07N BETWEEN 99W AND 101W...
AND ALSO WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND
133W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE AT 1030 MB IS NEAR 33N131W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING THROUGH 26N121W TO 17N108W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
REACHES FROM 24N110W TO 19N127W. A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT LINGERS ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE W OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE U.S. GREAT BASIN REGION. FRESH TO NEAR GALE
FORCE NW-N WINDS ARE FOUND N OF 20N BETWEEN 109W AND 123W. LARGE
NW SWELL OF 12-18 FT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE TOWARD AND IMPACT
THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA RESULTING IN ROUGH
AND DANGEROUS SURF. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...THEN
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. AS THE WINDS DIMINISH SO
WILL THE NW SWELL...ALTHOUGH MUCH MORE GRADUALLY.
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS THAT WERE
OCCURRING IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF HAVE DIMINISHED...AS HAVE
REMNANT FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS. THESE SLIGHTLY MORE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ONCE AGAIN SET UP OVER NW MEXICO. NW-N WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
FRESH TO STRONG IN THE SOUTHERN GULF SPILLING OUT SOUTHWARD TO
AROUND CABO CORRIENTES BY EARLY TUE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK...EXPANDING TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA IN
THE GULF S OF 30N BY WED EVENING. THESE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BLEED THROUGH SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PASSAGES.
 
A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E TRADES DOMINATES THE WATERS
FROM 07N TO 16N W OF 120W DUE TO THE RIDGING COMBINED WITH LOWER
PRESSURES NEAR AND N OF THE ITCZ. CONFUSED SEAS WITH COMBINED
HEIGHTS OF 8-12 FT COVER THIS SAME AREA WITH SWELLS ALSO
SURROUNDING THE AREA OF TRADES AND PROPAGATING TO THE SE AND THE
EQUATOR. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD
AS THE PARENT HIGH DOES AS WELL. A NEW SET OF LARGE NW SWELL
WILL BREACH 30N140W BY 48 HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 15 FT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
FOUND ACROSS THE GULF...ALONG WITH 2-4 FT SEAS IN MIXED SW AND
NW SWELL. THE NEXT SUBSTANTIAL TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT SHOULD
BEGIN EARLY ON THU AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. GALE CONDITIONS MAY QUICKLY DEVELOP LATE ON THU. THIS
EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR REACHING STORM FORCE AT ITS PEAK ON
FRI...THOUGH CURRENTLY NONE OF THE GUIDANCE EXPLICITLY SUGGESTS
THAT MAGNITUDE. THE EVENT MAY BE LONG-LIVED AS A REINFORCING
SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SAT.

GULF OF PANAMA...MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
LEWITSKY