000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012132 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON FEB 01 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER NW MEXICO DUE TO DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE W OF CALIFORNIA. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT GALE FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING WITH FRESH STRONG NW-N WINDS IN THE GULF N OF 26N. SEAS ARE UP TO 8-10 FT IN THE NORTHERN GULF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BY TUE MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF SPILLING OUT TO 18.5N...INCLUDING CABO CORRIENTES. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A TIGHT GRADIENT PERSISTS. BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE N OF 30N...AS WELL AS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS FOLLOW A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN REGION. SEAS ARE REACHING AS HIGH AS 20-22 FT IN THIS AREA DUE IN PART TO THE ONGOING GALES...BUT ALSO DUE TO ACCOMPANYING NW SWELL WITH PERIODS TO 15 SECONDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 TO 25 KT TONIGHT...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 12 FT OR LESS THROUGH LATE TUE. PLEASE SEE WWW.OPC.NCE.NOAA.GOV/SHTML/NFDOFFPZ6.SHTML FOR MORE INFORMATION. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N90W TO 05N105W TO 04N120W TO 05N125W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 110W AND 113W...FROM 01N TO 05N BETWEEN 116W AND 121W...AND ALSO FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 121W AND 134W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W TEXAS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH 20N125W TO 24N140W. WINDS OUT OF THE NW TO N RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 KT FOLLOWING THE FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ARE ACCOMPANIED BY A SET OF NW SWELL...WITH SEAS REACHING AS HIGH AS 12 TO 19 FT BETWEEN THE COAST AND 120W IMPACTING THE AREA AROUND GUADALUPE ISLAND. THE WAVE HEIGHTS IN THIS NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BEGINNING THIS EVENING. VERY ROUGH SURF WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE OFF CABO CORRIENTES AS WELL STARTING TUE AND PERSISTING THROUGH MID WEEK. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE GULF...ALONG WITH 2-4 FT SEAS IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL. THE NEXT SUBSTANTIAL TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT SHOULD BEGIN EARLY ON THU AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. GALE CONDITIONS MAY QUICKLY DEVELOP LATE ON THU. THIS EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR REACHING STORM FORCE AT ITS PEAK ON FRI...THOUGH CURRENTLY NONE OF THE GUIDANCE EXPLICITLY SUGGESTS THAT MAGNITUDE. THE EVENT MAY BE LONG-LIVED AS A REINFORCING SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SAT. S OF 15N E OF 110W...FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE NE GAP WINDS WILL PULSE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE BEFORE FADING. IN THE GULF OF PANAMA...MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE...A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 34N132W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO 18N106W. A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EQUATORWARD OF THE HIGH IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE NE TRADEWINDS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WATERS WELL WEST OF BAJA...THIS WILL ENHANCE THE NE TRADEWINDS AND LEAD TO A LARGE AREA OF STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED. $$ LEWITSKY