000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011606 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON FEB 01 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE...SEVERAL SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASSES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS HAVE INDICATED STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHER PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE RELATED TO A DEEP 991 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND ARE FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. BECAUSE THE WINDS HAVE BEEN AT LEAST TO NEAR GALE STRENGTH SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING...AND GIVEN A FETCH OF UP TO 135 NM...IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT SEAS ARE REACHING 8 FT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG THE COAST SOUTH PUERTO PENASCO. THE WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE TODAY AS THE SUPPORTING LOW PRES CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT HOWEVER...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA INCLUDING THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF STARTING TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE N OF 30N. THE GALES FOLLOW A COLD FRONT THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP 991 MB LOW PRES AREA CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. SEAS ARE REACHING AS HIGH AS 22 FT IN THIS AREA DUE IN PART TO THE ONGOING GALES BUT ALSO DUE TO ACCOMPANYING NW SWELL WITH PERIODS TO 15 SECONDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 TO 25 KT TONIGHT...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 12 FT OR LESS THROUGH LATE TUE. PLEASE SEE WWW.OPC.NCE.NOAA.GOV/SHTML/NFDOFFPZ6.SHTML FOR MORE INFORMATION. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... TROUGH FROM 07N93W TO 04N100W. ITCZ FROM 04N100W TO 03N105W TO06N125W TO 03N135W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 135W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEW MEXICO ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TO 23N120W THEN CONTINUES FARTHER WEST TO 22N140W. WINDS OUT OF THE NW TO N RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 KT FOLLOW THE FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ACCOMPANIED BY A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL...WITH SEAS REACHING AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20 FT BETWEEN THE COAST AND 120W IMPACTING THE AREA AROUND GUADALUPE ISLAND. THE WAVE HEIGHTS IN THIS NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BEGINNING THIS EVENING. VERY ROUGH SURF WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE OFF CABO CORRIENTES AS WELL STARTING TUE AND PERSISTING THROUGH MID WEEK. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...CONDITIONS IN THE GULF ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THE NEXT SUBSTANTIAL TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT SHOULD BEGIN EARLY ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. GALE CONDITIONS MAY QUICKLY DEVELOP LATE ON THURSDAY. IT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR REACHING STORM FORCE AT ITS PEAK ON FRIDAY...THOUGH CURRENTLY NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AMPLITUDE. THE EVENT MAY BE LONG-LIVED AS A REINFORCING SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SATURDAY. S OF 15N E OF 110W...FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE NE GAP WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW 8 FT. THIS WEAK EVENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE FADING ON WEDNESDAY. IN THE GULF OF PANAMA...MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE...A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 35N133W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO 21N110W. A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EQUATORWARD OF THE HIGH IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE NE TRADEWINDS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WATERS WELL WEST OF BAJA TODAY...THIS WILL ENHANCE THE NE TRADEWINDS AND LEAD TO A LARGE AREA OF STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS. THESE WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. $$ CHRISTENSEN