000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010920 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON FEB 01 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N90W TO 03N98W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 02N110W TO 06N123W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS W OF 123W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A COMPLEX LOW OVER THE US GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERNMOST GULF OF CALIFORNIA...ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE...AND WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD TO 24N140W. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTHERNMOST GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING GALE CONDITIONS...AS OBSERVED FROM THE 04Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS. THESE GALES SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT PROGRESSES EASTWARD QUICKLY IN TANDEM WITH THE LOW. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE WINDS SHOULD VEER TO NW WITH THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT AND DROP TO NEAR GALE. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING DIMINISHED TO A FRESH BREEZE. BECAUSE OF THE LIMITED FETCH IN THE GULF FOR A SW WIND...WAVE HEIGHTS ARE UNLIKELY TO SURPASS 8 TO 9 FT. A JUST ARRIVING TOPEX ALTIMETER PASS ALSO AT 04Z INDICATES WAVE HEIGHTS CURRENTLY AT 8 FT. ...DISCUSSION... A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 35N137W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO 21N110W. A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EQUATORWARD OF THE HIGH IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE NE TRADEWINDS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WATERS WELL WEST OF BAJA TODAY...THIS WILL ENHANCE THE NE TRADEWINDS AND LEAD TO A LARGE AREA OF STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS. THESE WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NW WINDS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ARE NEAR GALE NORTH OF THE FRONT. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A LONG FETCH OF THESE NW WINDS IS ENHANCING THE WAVE HEIGHTS JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH LARGEST VALUES NEAR 30N AROUND 13 FT CURRENTLY AND PEAK AROUND 18 FT THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVE HEIGHTS IN THIS NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BEGINNING THIS EVENING. VERY ROUGH SURF WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA ON TODAY AND TUESDAY. BY LATE ON TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEST OF BAJA... NW WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL INCREASE TO STRONG BREEZE AND NEAR GALE CONDITIONS. THESE MAY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...CONDITIONS IN THE GULF ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THE NEXT SUBSTANTIAL TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT SHOULD BEGIN EARLY ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. GALE CONDITIONS MAY QUICKLY DEVELOP LATE ON THURSDAY. IT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR REACHING STORM FORCE AT ITS PEAK ON FRIDAY...THOUGH CURRENTLY NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AMPLITUDE. THE EVENT MAY BE LONG-LIVED AS A REINFORCING SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SATURDAY. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE NE GAP WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW 8 FT. THIS WEAK EVENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE FADING ON WEDNESDAY. GULF OF PANAMA...MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. $$ LANDSEA