000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010331 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON FEB 01 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N88W TO 04N97W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N100W TO 05N115W TO 06N124W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 04N BETWEEN 110W AND 113W... AND ALSO FROM 02N TO 06N W OF 127W. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N117W TO 26N125W TO 24N140W WILL QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 29.5N TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS COMMENCING LATE TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING JUST BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY MON AFTERNOON...THEN TO 20 KT OR LESS MON EVENING. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 8-9 FT IN THE NORTHERN GULF. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND W CENTRAL MEXICO BY TUE EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF S OF 27N...SPILLING OUT THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF...AND ALSO OFFSHORE OF CABO CORRIENTES. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...MAINLY SOUTHERLY...AND 2-4 FT SEAS IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED. LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING BY JUST N OF THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND BROAD LOWER PRESSURES PRESENT JUST S OF THE AREA. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY ARRIVE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WED NIGHT...THEN WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY THU MORNING...THEN TO STRONG GALE FORCE BY THU EVENING. THIS EVENT DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH STORM FORCE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE NE GAP WINDS DIMINISHED DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER PULSE OF FRESH TO STRONG CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISHING MON AFTERNOON...WITH YET ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. GULF OF PANAMA...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE WESTERN GULF...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE AZUERO PENINSULA...DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH TUE. THESE WINDS WILL BUILDS SEAS TO 4-6 FT. ELSEWHERE...FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE W-NW WINDS ARE ARRIVING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS ANALYZED FROM 30N117W TO 26N125W TO 24N140W...ALONG WITH SW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF 27N OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND JUST W OF THE PENINSULA BY TUE AFTERNOON. LARGE NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS UP TO 18 FT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA ON MON...RESULTING IN VERY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SURF. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH A 1031 MB HIGH CENTER CURRENTLY NEAR 35N137W REACHING NEAR 32N128W BY TUE AFTERNOON. RIDGING WILL EXTEND SE FROM THIS HIGH TO NEAR 14N107W BY THEN WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE WATERS GENERALLY FROM 09N TO 23N W OF 110W. EXPECT SEAS OF 8-12 FT ACROSS THIS SAME AREA DUE TO FRESH NE WIND WAVES GENERATED BY THE TRADES ALONG WITH COMMINGLING LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL MENTIONED ABOVE. $$ LEWITSKY