000 AXPZ20 KNHC 312158 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN JAN 31 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N87W TO 04N96W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N99W TO 06N110W TO 06N123W THEN RESUMES FROM 05N127W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 105W AND 109W...FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 108W AND 113W...FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 128W AND 133W...AND ALSO FROM 03N TO 09N W OF 136W. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N123W TO 26N130W TO 26N140W WILL QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD REACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 29N TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS COMMENCING MON MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING JUST BELOW GALE FORCE MON AFTERNOON...THEN TO 20 KT OR LESS MON NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT IN THE NORTHERN GULF. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...MAINLY SOUTHERLY...AND 2-4 FT SEAS IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED. LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING BY JUST N OF THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL SETUP ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND BROAD LOWER PRESSURES PRESENT JUST S OF THE AREA. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY SETUP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WED NIGHT...THEN WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY THU MORNING...THEN TO STRONG GALE FORCE BY THU EVENING. THIS EVENT DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH STORM FORCE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE NE GAP WINDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT ANOTHER PULSE OF FRESH TO STRONG CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISHING MON AFTERNOON...WITH YET ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. GULF OF PANAMA...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE WESTERN GULF...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE AZUERO PENINSULA...DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH TUE. THESE WINDS WILL BUILDS SEAS TO 4-6 FT. ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N123W TO 26N130W TO 26N140W IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS W OF THE FRONT TO 138W...WITH FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF 28N E OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT WITH FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW-N WINDS REACHING THE PENINSULA BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND JUST W OF THE PENINSULA BY TUE AFTERNOON. LARGE NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS UP TO 18 FT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA ON MON...RESULTING IN VERY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SURF. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH A 1030 MB HIGH CENTER REACHING NEAR 32N128W BY TUE AFTERNOON. RIDGING WILL EXTEND SE FROM THIS HIGH TO NEAR 14N107W BY THEN WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE WATERS GENERALLY FROM 08N TO 20N W OF 117W. EXPECT SEAS OF 8-11 FT ACROSS THIS SAME AREA DUE TO FRESH NE WIND WAVES GENERATED BY THE TRADES ALONG WITH COMMINGLING LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL MENTIONED ABOVE. $$ LEWITSKY