000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310859
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JAN 31 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N87W TO 07N117W TO 03N140W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS W OF 95W.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

A COLD FRONT HAS REACHED OUR NW CORNER FROM 30N135W TO 28N140W
THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD...
REACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE
FRONT...NW TO N WINDS SHOULD REACH STRONG BREEZE TO NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS.  ADDITIONALLY...AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY MORNING
SW WINDS WITHIN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N ARE PREDICTED TO
BECOME A GALE.  WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS LITTLE TO NO CHANCE
OF A GALE...THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ALL INDICATE A
BRIEF...LOCALIZED GALE IN THE NORTHERNMOST GULF. BECAUSE OF THE
LIMITED FETCH IN THE GULF FOR A SW WIND...WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
UNLIKELY TO SURPASS ABOUT 8 FT. WINDS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SHOULD DIMINISH SOME BY TUESDAY.  THE NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REINVIGORATE THE NW SWELL IN THE PACIFIC...REACHING A PEAK
OF UP TO 17 FT WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MONDAY. THE WAVE HEIGHTS
IN THIS NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THAT POINT ONWARD.
VERY ROUGH SURF WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  WITHIN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND COVER THE ENTIRE
GULF...BUT DIMINISH IN STRENGTH TO FRESH AND STRONG BREEZE
CONDITIONS.  

...DISCUSSION...                                               

A DISSIPATING 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N130W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO 23N105W.  A MODEST SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT EQUATORWARD OF THE HIGH IS PRODUCING GENERALLY
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE TRADEWINDS WITH AN ISOLATED AREA OF
STRONG BREEZE NORTHEASTERLIES NEAR 10N140W. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE WATERS WELL WEST OF BAJA ON MONDAY...THIS
WILL ENHANCE THE NE TRADEWINDS AND LEAD TO A LARGE AREA OF
STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS.  THESE WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ARE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH THE LEADING EDGE EXTENDING FROM 18N105W
TO 00N115W.  TOPEX ALTIMETER PASSES AT 02Z AND 05Z INDICATE THAT
PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 11-12 FT.  THIS NW SWELL WILL
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. BY TUESDAY...PEAK WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE NW SWELL OVER THE OPEN OCEAN SHOULD DROP TO 8 TO
9 FT.
 
GAP WINDS...                                                  

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS HAS DISSIPATED.  THE NEXT SUBSTANTIAL TEHUANTEPEC
GAP WIND EVENT MAY BEGIN ON THURSDAY AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL
FOR REACHING STORM FORCE AT ITS PEAK ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE NE GAP WINDS ARE
LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS
BELOW 8 FT.  THIS WEAK EVENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS
WEAK EVENT SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.

$$
LANDSEA