000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310333
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JAN 31 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         
GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE WARNING...A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC WATERS N OF 25N SUN AND INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUN NIGHT INTO MON. A
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL SET UP BETWEEN A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND STRONG HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE
FRONT ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUN NIGHT. ALONG WITH LOCAL DRAINAGE
EFFECTS FROM SURROUNDING HIGH TERRAIN...IT IS LIKELY THAT W TO
NW WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR PUERTO PENASCO MON MORNING.
ALTHOUGH GFS ENSEMBLE AND SREF OUTPUT SHOW LOW PROBABILITIES...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
GALE FORCE CONDITIONS MATERIALIZING. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW 8 FT WITH LIMITED FETCH OPPORTUNITY IN THIS AREA
GIVEN THE WESTERLY WINDS...BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 8 FT EARLY
MON IN THE LOCALIZED AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS. LOOKING AHEAD...
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE STALLING
AND WEAKENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY LATE TUE. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS
WILL ENVELOPE THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...POSSIBLY REACHING
30 KT OFF LOS CABOS BY MID WEEK WITH SEAS TO 11 FT IN THE
ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N88W TO
05N94W TO 07N113W TO 04N128W TO 03N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...                                               
N OF 15N E OF 120W...MODERATE NW TO N WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION N OF 22N BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND WEAK
TROUGHING ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES ARE NOTED FARTHER SOUTH. DESPITE RELATIVELY MODEST
WINDS...8 TO 11 FT NW SWELL WITH PERIODS TO 18 SECONDS ARE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION W OF 110W...IMPACTING THE WHOLE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS WILL
SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...JUST AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL BRING STRONG
W TO NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION OFF BAJA THROUGH LATE MON WITH
10 TO 16 FT REINFORCING SWELL OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE STRONG GAP WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH
RESIDUAL NE SWELL DOWNSTREAM MIXING WITH ONGOING LONGER PERIOD
NW SWELL. THIS AREA OF SWELL WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT TONIGHT.
THE NEXT SUBSTANTIAL TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT MAY BEGIN ON
THURSDAY AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR REACHING STORM FORCE AT
ITS PEAK.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE NE GAP WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO WITH PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS OF ABOUT 8 FT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER ON
SUNDAY ALLOWING ONLY WINDS TO 20 KT THROUGH MON MORNING.
SIMILARLY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N128W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE HIGH PRES WILL DRIFT S-SW THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG W TO
NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH A NEW ROUND OF LONG PERIOD
NW SWELL. HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NE
PACIFIC WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS SUN AND MON.

$$
HUFFMAN