000 AXPZ20 KNHC 302141 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT JAN 30 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE WARNING...A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC WATERS N OF 25N SUN AND INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUN NIGHT INTO MON. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL SET UP BETWEEN A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND STRONG HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE FRONT ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUN NIGHT. ALONG WITH LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS FROM SURROUNDING HIGH TERRAIN...IT IS LIKELY THAT W TO NW WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR PUERTO PENASCO MON MORNING. ALTHOUGH GFS ENSEMBLE AND SREF OUTPUT SHOW LOW PROBABILITIES... OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GALE FORCE CONDITIONS MATERIALIZING. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 8 FT WITH LIMITED FETCH OPPORTUNITY IN THIS AREA GIVEN THE WESTERLY WINDS...BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 8 FT EARLY MON IN THE LOCALIZED AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS. LOOKING AHEAD... THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE STALLING AND WEAKENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY LATE TUE. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS WILL ENVELOPE THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...POSSIBLY REACHING 30 KT OFF LOS CABOS BY MID WEEK WITH SEAS TO 11 FT IN THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N89W TO 05N99W TO 08N112W TO 03N125W TO 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W...MODERATE NW TO N WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION N OF 22N BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE NOTED FARTHER SOUTH. DESPITE RELATIVELY MODEST WINDS...8 TO 12 FT NW SWELL WITH PERIODS TO 18 SECONDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION W OF 110W...IMPACTING THE WHOLE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...JUST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL BRING STRONG W TO NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION OFF BAJA THROUGH LATE MON WITH 10 TO 16 FT REINFORCING SWELL OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE STRONG GAP WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH RESIDUAL NE SWELL DOWNSTREAM MIXING WITH ONGOING LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL. THIS AREA OF SWELL WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT LATER TONIGHT. THE NEXT SUBSTANTIAL TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT MAY BEGIN ON THURSDAY AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR REACHING STORM FORCE AT ITS PEAK. S OF 15N E OF 110W...FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE NE GAP WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS OF ABOUT 9 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING ONLY WINDS TO 20 KT BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. SIMILARLY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE...A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N131W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE HIGH PRES WILL DRIFT S-SW THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG W TO NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH A NEW ROUND OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NE PACIFIC WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS W OF 128W SUN AND MON. $$ HUFFMAN