000 AXPZ20 KNHC 301619 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JAN 30 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE WARNING...A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC WATERS N OF 25N SUN AND INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUN NIGHT INTO MON. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL SET UP BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND STRONG HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE FRONT OVER THE EAST PACIFIC AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUN NIGHT. ALONG WITH LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS FROM SURROUNDING HIGH TERRAIN...IT IS LIKELY THAT W TO NW WINDS WILL REACH FORCE OVER THE FAR REACHES OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR PUERTO PENASCO MON MORNING. ALTHOGUH GFS ENSEMBLE AND SREF OUTPUT SHOW LOW PROBABILITES...OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENTAND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FETCH LIMITED IN THIS AREA GIVEN THE WESTERLY WINDS...BUT SEAS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 8 FT EARLY MON. LOOKING AHEAD...THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE STALLING AND WEAKENING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY LATE TUE. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS WILL ENVELOPE THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...POSSIBLY REACHING 30 KT OFF LOS CABOS BY MID WEEK WITH SEAS TO 11 FT IN THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS 04N83W TO 04N105W...RESUMING AT 08N112W AND EXTENDING TO 03N125W TO 02N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W...MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION N OF 22N BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE WEST AND TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE NOTED FARTHER SOUTH. DESPITE RELATIVELY MODEST WINDS...8 TO 12 FT NW SWELL WITH PERIODS TO 18 SECONDS ARE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION W OF 110W...IMPACTING THE WHOLE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...JUST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL BRING STRONG W TO NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION OFF BAJA THROUGH LATE MON WITH 10 TO 14 FT REINFORCING SWELL OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE STRONG GAP WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AND SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KT LATE TODAY. RESIDUAL NE SWELL DOWNSTREAM IS MIXING WITH ONGOING LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL...BUT WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT LATER TONIGHT. THE NEXT SUBSTANTIAL TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT MAY BEGIN ON THURSDAY AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR REACHING STORM FORCE AT ITS PEAK. S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG BREEZE TO NEAR GALE NE GAP WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS OF ABOUT 10 FT. FORCING FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD WEAKEN LATER TODAY...ALLOWING GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS TO DIMINISHING BACK TO FRESH OR STRONG BREEZE TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW ONLY WINDS TO 20 KT BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. SIMILARLY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE...A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N133W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG W TO NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH A NEW ROUND OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NE PACIFIC WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS W OF 125W SUN AND MON. $$ CHRISTENSEN