000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301606
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JAN 30 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE WARNING...A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC WATERS N OF 25N SUN AND INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUN NIGHT INTO MON. A
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL SET UP BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRES OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND STRONG HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE FRONT OVER
THE EAST PACIFIC AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA SUN NIGHT. ALONG WITH LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS FROM
SURROUNDING HIGH TERRAIN...IT IS LIKELY THAT W TO NW WINDS WILL
REACH FORCE OVER THE FAR REACHES OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR
PUERTO PENASCO MON MORNING. ALTHOGUH GFS ENSEMBLE AND SREF
OUTPUT SHOW LOW PROBABILITES...OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
CONSISTENTAND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL FETCH LIMITED IN THIS AREA GIVEN THE WESTERLY WINDS...BUT
SEAS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 8 FT EARLY MON. LOOKING AHEAD...THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE STALLING AND
WEAKENING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND GULF
OF CALIFORNIA BY LATE TUE. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS WILL
ENVELOPE THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...POSSIBLY REACHING 30 KT
OFF LOS CABOS BY MID WEEK WITH SEAS TO 11 FT IN THE ENTRANCE TO
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

THE ITCZ EXTENDS 04N83W TO 04N105W...RESUMING AT 08N112W AND
EXTENDING TO 03N125W TO 02N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING.

...DISCUSSION...                                               

N OF 15N E OF 120W...MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION N OF 22N BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE WEST AND TROUGHING
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE
NOTED FARTHER SOUTH. DESPITE RELATIVELY MODEST WINDS...8 TO 12
FT NW SWELL WITH PERIODS TO 18 SECONDS ARE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION W OF 110W...IMPACTING THE WHOLE PACIFIC COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY...JUST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL BRING STRONG W TO NW WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION OFF BAJA THROUGH LATE MON WITH 10 TO 14 FT REINFORCING
SWELL OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. 

S OF 15N E OF 110W...WINDS DUE TO LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS LATER
TO BE REINFORCED BY STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN WILL LIKELY FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TODAY.
THEY ARE LIKELY TO REACH NEAR GALE WITH SEAS TO 9 FT EARLY ON
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...FORCING FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SHOULD WEAKEN...ALLOWING GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS TO
DIMINISHING BACK TO FRESH OR STRONG BREEZE. IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW 8 FT AND
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH ON SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N130W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO 22N110W.  THE MODERATE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT EQUATORWARD OF THE HIGH IS PRODUCING FRESH
BREEZE TRADEWINDS.  THESE SHOULD CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. LARGE LONG PERIOD NW
SWELL ARE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WITH PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS OF 15 FT FROM 20-30N BETWEEN 130-140W.
THIS NW SWELL WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WHILE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN