000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300828
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JAN 30 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N81W TO 04N96W. ITCZ THEN RESUMES AT
06N109W AND EXTENDS TO 02N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING.

...DISCUSSION...                                               

A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N132W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO 24N106W.  A MODEST SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT EQUATORWARD OF THE HIGH IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZE TRADEWINDS.  THESE SHOULD CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ARE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
SUBTROPICAL NORTHEAST PACIFIC ALONG A NE-SW DIAGONAL BAND
CENTERED ALONG 30N120W TO 10N140W.  TOPEX ALTIMETER PASSES AT 18
AND 02Z INDICATED PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS OF 13-15 FT.  THIS NW SWELL
WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.  THIS IS ALSO CAUSING HIGH SURF ALONG
MOST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. BY MONDAY...PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS
IN THE NW SWELL OVER THE OPEN OCEAN SHOULD DROP TO 10 FT.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH OUR NW CORNER AT 30N140W EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD...REACHING
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST MONDAY MORNING.  BEHIND THE FRONT...NW
TO N WINDS SHOUD REACH STRONG BREEZE TO NEAR GALE CONDITIONS.
ADDITIONALLY...AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY SW WINDS WITHIN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N COULD BECOME A GALE.  BECAUSE OF THE
LIMITED FETCH IN THE GULF FOR A SW WIND...WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
UNLIKELY TO SURPASS ABOUT 8 FT.  WINDS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND WITHIN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD DIMINISH SOME ON
TUESDAY.  THE NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REINVIGORATE THE NW
SWELL...REACHING AGAIN 12-15 FT WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
 
GAP WINDS...                                                  

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A GAP WIND EVENT IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AN 0354Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED
PEAK N WINDS AROUND 30 KT.  HIGHEST WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 10 FT
NEAR 15N95W.  FORCING FOR THIS EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
WITH WINDS REDUCING TO FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND THE RESIDUAL NE SWELL WILL DROP BELOW 8 FT ON SUNDAY. THE
NEXT SUBSTANTIAL TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT MAY BEGIN ON
THURSDAY AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR REACHING STORM FORCE AT
ITS PEAK.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG BREEZE TO NEAR GALE NE GAP WINDS ARE
LIKELY OCCURING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS
OF ABOUT 10 FT.  LATE ON SUNDAY...FORCING FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD WEAKEN...ALLOWING GULF OF PAPAGAYO
WINDS TO DIMINISHING BACK TO FRESH OR STRONG BREEZE.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
FUNNELLING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW 8 FT AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
LATE ON SUNDAY.

$$
LANDSEA