000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300342
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JAN 30 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N81W TO
07N108W TO 03N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
03N TO 12N BETWEEN 96W AND 103W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W...AND FROM 02N TO 05N W OF
138W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               
W OF 110W...WHILE SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THIS AREA ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
30N132W AND THE ITCZ AXIS MEANDERING FROM 03N TO 06N...THE
PRIMARY MARINE CONCERN IS MAXIMUM SEAS OF 12 TO 14 FT DUE TO NW
SWELL WITHIN 360 NE EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 31N123W TO
11N140W. THE PREVAILING TRADES REMAIN GENERALLY AT FRESH BREEZE
LEVELS THIS EVENING. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NW SWELL WILL HAVE
SUBSIDED A BIT WITH MOST OF THE AREA FORECAST TO EXPECT 8 TO 12
FT SEAS UNDER MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS. INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE IMPACTING THE FAR
NW CORNER AND MOVING EASTWARD SKIRTING N OF 28N. NW TO N WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL FOLLOW IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH MAXIMUM
COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT. AS THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS GAPS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SOME POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND THE 48 HOUR TIME FRAME ON
MONDAY MORNING. THE LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE ECMWF WITH A DEEPER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IN ADDITION...LATEST SREF GUIDANCE
SHOWS FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THIS...BUT GALE WARNINGS MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY EARLY MONDAY
IF TRENDS IN SUBSEQUENT GFS MODEL RUNS PERSIST.

E OF 110W...WINDS DUE TO LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS LATER TO BE
REINFORCED BY STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN
SEA WILL LIKELY FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THEY ARE
LIKELY TO REACH NEAR GALE WITH SEAS TO 10 FT EARLY ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY...FORCING FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA SHOULD WEAKEN...ALLOWING GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS TO
DIMINISHING BACK TO FRESH OR STRONG BREEZE LEVELS. IN THE GULF
OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW 8
FT AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH ON SUNDAY.

IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION...SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EASTWARD AND GENERALLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
AS A RESULT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A DIMINISHING
TREND DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING AS WELL.
REMAINING SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL IS MIXING WITH INCOMING LONGER
PERIOD NW SWELL FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. HOWEVER THIS SWELL WILL
SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT ALTOGETHER SAT NIGHT WITH THE NEXT
SUBSTANTIAL TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT BEGINNING LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. IT HAS POTENTIAL FOR
REACHING STORM FORCE AT ITS PEAK.

$$
HUFFMAN