000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292147
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JAN 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N81W TO
06N86W TO 04N94W TO 06N106W TO 04N125W TO 01N140W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 93W AND
103W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               
N OF 15N E OF 120W...GENTLE TO MODERATE N-NE WINDS PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE WEST AND TROUGHING
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREA OF NW MEXICO. DESPITE RELATIVELY MODEST
WINDS...12 FT NW SWELL WITH PERIODS TO 19 SECONDS ARE MOVING
PAST GUADALUPE ISLAND TOWARD THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE.
SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL REACH THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY REACHING
AS FAR EAST AS 105W NEAR THE COAST OF JALISCO BY LATE SAT. WHILE
THIS GROUP OF SWELL WILL DECAY BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY MON...A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A
NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL. STRONG W TO NW WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS PUSHING
ACROSS GAPS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. LATEST SREF GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR THIS...BUT GALE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY EARLY MONDAY IF TRENDS
PERSIST.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...WINDS DUE TO LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS LATER
TO BE REINFORCED BY STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN SEA WILL LIKELY FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.
THEY ARE LIKELY TO REACH NEAR GALE WITH SEAS TO 10 FT EARLY ON
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...FORCING FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD WEAKEN...ALLOWING GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS TO
DIMINISHING BACK TO FRESH OR STRONG BREEZE LEVELS. IN THE GULF
OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW 8
FT AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH ON SUNDAY.

IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE
FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS ARE SUBSIDING AS WELL...ALTHOUGH
SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL IS MIXING WITH INCOMING LONGER PERIOD NW
SWELL FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. THIS
SWELL WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT ALTOGETHER SAT NIGHT. THE NEXT
SUBSTANTIAL TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT MAY BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR REACHING
STORM FORCE AT ITS PEAK.

ELSEWHERE...A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N132W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO 17N113W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT EQUATORWARD OF THE HIGH IS PRODUCING FRESH BREEZE TRADE
WINDS. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH PEAK
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 14-15 FT WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 31N122W TO 14N140W. THIS NW SWELL WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. 

$$
HUFFMAN