000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291507
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC FRI JAN 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCT GALE
FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS
AT SALINA CRUZ NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ISTHMUS...ALONG WITH
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA...INDICATE THE GALE IS
ONGOING THROUGH THIS MORNING. A RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS
CONFIRMED SEAS TO NEAR 14 FT IN THE PLUME OF GALE FORCE
WINDS...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES ARE LIKELY. THE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL WILL MIX WITH INCOMING
LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL FARTHER DOWNSTREAM THROUGH
SAT...SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT ALTOGETHER THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE
NEXT SUBSTANTIAL TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT MAY BEGIN ON
THURSDAY AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR REACHING STORM FORCE AT
ITS PEAK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N86W TO
05N105W...RESUMING FROM 03N112W TO 02N117W TO 04N123W TO
01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 06N
E OF82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED FROM 04N
TO 08N BETWEEN 95W AND 102W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                               

N OF 15N E OF 120W...MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION N OF 22N BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE WEST AND TROUGHING
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE
NOTED FARTHER SOUTH. DESPITE RELATIVELY MODEST WINDS...12 FT NW
SWELL WITH PERIODS TO 18 SECONDS ARE MOVING PAST GUADALUPE
ISLAND TOWARD THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. SEAS IN EXCESS
OF 8 FT WILL REACH THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY REACHING AS FAR EAST
AS 105W NEAR THE COAST OF JALISCO BY LATE SAT. WHILE THIS GROUP
OF SWELL WILL DECAY BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY MON...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A NEW ROUND
OF NW SWELL. STRONG W TO NW WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS PUSHING ACROSS GAPS IN
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
SREF GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THIS...BUT GALE
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY
EARLY MONDAY IF TRENDS PERSIST.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...WINDS DUE TO LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS LATER
TO BE REINFORCED BY STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN WILL LIKELY FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TODAY.
THEY ARE LIKELY TO REACH NEAR GALE WITH SEAS TO 9 FT EARLY ON
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...FORCING FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SHOULD WEAKEN...ALLOWING GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS TO
DIMINISHING BACK TO FRESH OR STRONG BREEZE. IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW 8 FT AND
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH ON SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N130W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO 22N110W.  THE MODERATE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT EQUATORWARD OF THE HIGH IS PRODUCING FRESH
BREEZE TRADEWINDS.  THESE SHOULD CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. LARGE LONG PERIOD NW
SWELL ARE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WITH PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS OF 15 FT FROM 20-30N BETWEEN 130-140W.
THIS NW SWELL WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WHILE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN