000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290940
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JAN 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCT GALE
FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  AN 0328Z ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED PEAK WINDS AROUND 40 KT.
ADDITIONALLY...SHIP A8CC4 REPORTED NW 35 KT WINDS WITH 14 FT
SEAS AROUND 06Z.  WAVE HEIGHTS LIKELY PEAK AROUND 16 FT NEAR
14N96W.  FORCING FOR THIS EVENT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH.  IT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEAS
DIMINISHING TO 12 FT.  WINDS WILL REDUCE TO FRESH BREEZE
CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THE RESIDUAL NE SWELL WILL
DROP BELOW 8 FT ON SUNDAY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N80W TO
05N102W.  A TROUGH ALONG 105W BREAKS THE ITCZ.  THE ITCZ RESUMES
FROM 05N106W TO 01N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 90W AND 102W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               

A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N130W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO 22N110W.  THE MODERATE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT EQUATORWARD OF THE HIGH IS PRODUCING FRESH
BREEZE TRADEWINDS.  THESE SHOULD CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.

LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ARE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
SUBTROPICAL NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS OF 15 FT
FROM 20-30N BETWEEN 130-140W.  NO OBSERVATIONS WERE AVAILABLE TO
CONFIRM THESE VALUES...THOUGH A TOPEX ALTIMETER PASS DID SHOW A
PEAK OF AROUND 13 FT NEAR 30N127W. THIS NW SWELL WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING.  THIS WILL CAUSE HIGH SURF ALONG THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS SHORTLY AND ALONG THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.  BY SUNDAY...PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE
NW SWELL OVER THE OPEN OCEAN SHOULD DROP TO 10 FT AND CONDITIONS
ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST IMPROVE.

GAP WINDS...                                                  
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG BREEZE NE TRADEWINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BEGIN THIS MORNING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.  THEY ARE LIKELY
TO REACH NEAR GALE WITH SEAS TO 9 FT EARLY ON SATURDAY.  BY
SUNDAY...FORCING FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SHOULD WEAKEN...ALLOWING GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS TO DIMINISHING
BACK TO FRESH OR STRONG BREEZE.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN
SEA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
BELOW 8 FT AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK FOR DAYS THREE TO SIX...A COLD FRONT WILL REACH 30N ON
SUNDAY AND THE BAJA PENINSULA BY MONDAY.  WESTERLY WINDS IN THE
NORTHERNMOST GULF OF CALIFORNIA MAY BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE ON
MONDAY.  BY TUESDAY STRONG BREEZE TO NEAR GALE NW WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND STRONG BREEZE NE TRADEWINDS FROM
10-20N WEST OF 120W MAY OCCUR.  THE NEXT SUBSTANTIAL TEHUANTEPEC
GAP WIND EVENT MAY BEGIN ON THURSDAY AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL
FOR REACHING STORM FORCE AT ITS PEAK.

$$
LANDSEA