000 AXPZ20 KNHC 282146 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU JAN 28 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ANALYZED ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N103W. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP IS SUPPORTING A GALE FORCE WIND EVENT OF N-NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF. SEAS OF 11-13 FT WILL MAINTAIN THEMSELVES INTO FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ALLOWING FOR THE WIND FIELD TO DIMINISH TO 30-35 KT...AND TO BELOW GALE FORCE BY LATE EVENING. THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND TERMINATE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE INTO A RANGE OF 8-10 FT BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. NE SWELL RESULTING FROM THIS EVENT WILL SPREAD SW AWAY FROM THE GULF REGION...AND MIX WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ACROSS AN AREA FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 102W FRIDAY EVENING...AND FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 97W AND 109W BY SATURDAY EVENING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N86W TO 05N104W TO 03N120W TO 04N126W TO 01N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 111W AND 116W...AND FROM 01N TO 06N W OF 137W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N129W EXTENDS AN AXIS SE TO NEAR 16N111W...AND ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND 27N140W. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ REGION IS GENERATING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 05N TO 12N W OF 135W. SEAS WITHIN THIS AREA ARE IN THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE. THE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SW AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. AS A RESULT...THE EXISTING 20 TO 25 KT TRADES WILL DIMINISH IN 24 HOURS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 17-20 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 100W THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN ADDITIONAL PULSE OF NW SWELL IS CURRENTLY REACHING ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA BUILDING SEAS TO 18 FT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL EVENT PRESENTLY EXTENDS FROM A LINE NEAR 17N100W INTO THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE NEAR 03S114W. ROUGH WAVE ACTION PRODUCING HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE SECOND SET OF NW SWELL ARRIVES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE REVILLAGIGEDO AND LAS MARIAS ISLANDS ON SAT. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG NE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO MATERIALIZE FRI MORNING BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ANALYZED ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE EAST PACIFIC WATERS...AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SPREAD SW TO NEAR 09N89W. SEAS WITHIN THE AREA OF MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 10 FT. IN ADDITION...FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF TO COVER ROUGHLY THE WATERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.5N88W TO 09N91W TO 08N97W. GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 8 FT WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. $$ HUFFMAN