000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280331 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU JAN 28 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC SUPPORTING THE NEXT GALE FORCE WIND EVENT. THE ONSET OF THIS EVENT WILL START OFF AS FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS THIS EVENING THEN INCREASING TO GALE FORCE AROUND 03Z TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KT BY EARLY THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER MORE ACROSS SE MEXICO. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12-14 FT BY LATE THURSDAY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. NE SWELL INDUCED BY THIS EVENT WILL SPREAD SW AWAY FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION...AND MIX WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL OVER AN AREA FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 93W-102W THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N86W TO 06N99W...THEN RESUMES W OF TROUGH FROM 05N104W TO 06N123W TO 04N135W. THE AXIS RESUMES ONCE AGAIN W OF A TROUGH 04N138W TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W...AND WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 140W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED AT 34N126W HAS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS...AND ALSO TO THE SW TO 26N140W. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 04N TO 11N W OF 124W WITH SEAS IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF ABOUT 135W BY EARLY FRIDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS FROM 10N99W TO 04N103W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN 100 NM E AND W OF TROUGH FROM 03N TO 10N. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N136W TO 04N136W...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION MAINLY S OF 05N. A LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 11-14 FT ARE ACROSS THE NW CORNER WILL BE REINFORCED BY A NEW SET OF NW SWELL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUILDING SEAS UP TO 17-19 FT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL EVENT IS CURRENTLY REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND WILL REACH THE REVILLAGIGEDO AND LAS MARIAS ISLANDS THIS EVENING. EXPECT ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL TRAIN REACHES SHORE. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A TROUGH ALONG NW MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS IN THE GULF AS WAS CAPTURED BY THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF...REACHING THE WATERS NEAR CABO CORRIENTES TONIGHT. SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA PASSES WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 8-9 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM N TO S ON THU AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...E WINDS OF 15-20 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THIS AREA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED BY EARLY FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. MARINE GUIDANCE FORECASTS NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KT BY FRIDAY NIGHT. $$ ERA