000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271537 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED JAN 27 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTHWARD BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IN THE GULF. THE ONSET OF THIS EVENT WILL START OFF AS FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS DEVELOPING BY THIS AFTERNOON THEN INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 30-40 KT BY EARLY THU MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 15-16 FT BY LATE THU NIGHT. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE INTO FRI MORNING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENING WHILE SHIFTING EASTWARD. NE SWELL INDUCED BY THIS EVENT WILL SPREAD SW AWAY FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION...AND MIX WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL OVER AN AREA FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 93W- 102W THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N85W TO 05N92W TO 07N98W...THEN RESUMES W OF TROUGH FROM 07N103W TO 04N125W TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 89W AND 94W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 123W AND 126W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED AT 32N127W HAS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS...AND ALSO TO THE SW TO 24N140W. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SSW TO NEAR 31N129W BY TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 06N TO 12N W OF 125W STARTING THIS EVENING WITH SEAS IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THU TONIGHT... THEN SHIFT TO W OF ABOUT 135W BY EARLY FRI MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS FROM 11N98W TO 05N100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN 60 NM W AND 75 NM E OF TROUGH FROM 07N TO 09N. LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 19-21 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 11-14 FT ARE ACROSS THE NW CORNER WHICH WILL BE REINFORCED BY A NEW SET OF NW SWELL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUILDING SEAS UP TO 17-19 FT BY THEN. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL EVENT IS CURRENTLY REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND WILL REACH THE REVILLAGIGEDO AND LAS MARIAS ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL TRAIN REACHES SHORE. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A 1040 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN IN COMBINATION WITH A TROUGH ALONG NW MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS IN THE GULF AS WAS CAPTURED BY THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND SPILL OUT THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF...REACHING THE WATERS NEAR CABO CORRIENTES TONIGHT. SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA PASSES WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 8-9 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM N TO S ON THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED BY EARLY FRI MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER INCREASE TO 25-30 KT BY FRI NIGHT. $$ GR