000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271005 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED JAN 27 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTHWARD BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT GALE WIND EVENT IN THE GULF. THE ONSET OF THIS NEXT EVENT WILL START OFF AS FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS DEVELOPING BY EARLY IN AFTERNOON ...INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE AROUND 03Z TONIGHT AND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO JUST INLAND THE GULF...THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KT NEAR DAYBREAK THU WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9-14 FT AND TO 10-16 FT BY LATE THU NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE INTO FRI MORNING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE CULPRIT HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENING WHILE SHIFTING EASTWARD. NE SWELL INDUCED BY THIS EVENT WILL SPREAD SW AWAY FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION...AND MIX WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL OVER AN AREA FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 93W-99W THU NIGHT INTO FRI. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N88W TO 07N97W WHERE IT ENDS. IT RESUMES AT 06N102W TO 04N115W TO 04N125W TO 04N130W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 88W -92W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 121W-124W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1027 MB CENTERED AT 32N127W HAS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TONEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS...AND ALSO TO THE SW TO 24N140W.THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SSW TO NEAR 31N129W BY TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRES NEAR ANDALONG THE ITCZ IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESHTO STRONG TRADES STARTING TONIGHT FROM 06N TO 11N W OF 127W WITHSEAS IN THE 8-11 FT. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO CHANGELITTLE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO W OF ABOUT 135W BYLATE THU NIGHT. LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 19-21 SECONDSAND PRODUCING SEAS OF 10-14 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SETHROUGH THE WATERS W OF A LINE FROM NEAR 32N134W TO 27N140WTHROUGH TONIGHT WHILE BUILDING TO 12-16 FT AS THEY BECOMEREINFORCE BY A NEW SET OF NW SWELL. THESE SWELLS WILL THEN REACHTO NW OF A LINE FROM 32N124W TO 20N132W TO 14N140W BY THU. THELEADING EDGE OF SEAS IN THE 8-12 FT CURRENTLY IS AHEAD OF 12-16 FT SEAS REACHING A LINE FROM 31N122W TO 17N124W TO 04N132W TO 04N140W. THESE SEAS WILL REACH FURTHER E TO NEAR 117W BY LATE TONIGHT AND TO NEAR 115W BY LATE THU NIGHT. EXPECT ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE BAJACALIFORNIA PENINSULA COAST...THE REVILLAGIGEDO AND LAS MARIASISLANDS AND CABO CORRIENTES THROUGH FRI AS THE LEADING EDGE OFTHE SWELL TRAIN REACHES SHORE. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN IN COMBINATION WITH TROUGHING ALONG NW MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS IN THE GULF AS WAS CAPTURED BY THE 05O0 UTC ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND SPILL OUT THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF...AS WELL AS THROUGH AND ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. A 1027 MB CENTERED AT 32N127W HAS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS...AND ALSO TO THE SW TO 24N140W. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SSW TO NEAR 31N129W BY TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRES NEAR AND ALONG THE ITCZ IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES STARTING TONIGHT FROM 06N TO 11N W OF 127W WITH SEAS IN THE 8-11 FT. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO W OF ABOUT 135W BY LATE THU NIGHT. LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 19-21 SECONDS AND PRODUCING SEAS OF 10-14 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE THROUGH THE WATERS W OF A LINE FROM NEAR 32N134W TO 27N140W THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE BUILDING TO 12-16 FT AS THEY BECOME REINFORCE BY A NEW SET OF NW SWELL. THESE SWELLS WILL THEN REACH TO NW OF A LINE FROM 32N124W TO 20N132W TO 14N140W BY THU. THE LEADING EDGE OF SEAS IN THE 8-12 FT CURRENTLY IS AHEAD OF 12-16 FT SEAS REACHING A LINE FROM 31N122W TO 17N124W TO 04N132W TO 04N140W. THESE SEAS WILL REACH FURTHER E TO NEAR 117W BY LATE TONIGHT AND TO NEAR 115W BY LATE THU NIGHT. EXPECT ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA COAST...THE REVILLAGIGEDO AND LAS MARIAS ISLANDS AND CABO CORRIENTES THROUGH FRI AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL TRAIN REACHES SHORE. $$ AGUIRRE