000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270312
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JAN 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING
SOUTHWARD BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC WED...AND INDUCE A GALE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY
WED AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE SHORTLY THEREAFTER
AROUND SUNSET. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THU EVENING...UP TO 40 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 15-17 FT BY
THU.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N84W TO 07N97W. THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 07N125W TO 04N120W TO 03N130W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W...AND
ALSO FROM 04N TO 07N W OF 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE U.S. GREAT
BASIN IN COMBINATION WITH TROUGHING ALONG NW MEXICO IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS IN THE GULF AS SAMPLED BY
AN AFTERNOON ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD AND SPILL OUT THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF...AS WELL AS
THROUGH AND ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA PASSES.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT IN THE GULF. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS TEMPORARILY DIMINISHED IN THE GULF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS HOWEVER ANOTHER PULSE OF FRESH TO
STRONG NE TO E GAP WIND FLOW IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING THROUGH
WED MORNING WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO UP TO 8 FT BY LATE TONIGHT.

GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20 KT TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WED MORNING...BUILDING SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT BY WED
MORNING. EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS THEREAFTER
AND 3-5 FT SEAS.

ELSEWHERE...1026 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 34N125W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS...AND
ALSO TO THE SW TO 24N140W. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT S-SW
TO NEAR 31N129W BY WED EVENING. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGING AND LOWER PRES NEAR AND ALONG THE ITCZ IS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE W
CENTRAL WATERS. THESE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THU
AFTERNOON.

A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WAS NEAR 30N140W HAS DISSIPATED IN THE
PAST FEW HOURS. LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH WAVE PERIODS OF
19-21 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE ACROSS THE
WATERS W OF 110W THROUGH THE WEEK. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF
11-14 FT ARE ACROSS THE NW CORNER WHICH WILL BE REINFORCED BY A
NEW SET OF NW SWELL BY THU AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUILDING COMBINED
SEAS UP TO 17-18 FT BY THEN. THE EDGE OF SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER
CURRENTLY REACHES 128W-130W...BUT WILL REACH TO 118W BY WED
EVENING...AND THEN TO 113W BY THU EVENING. EXPECT ROUGH AND
HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
COAST LATER TONIGHT...THE REVILLAGIGEDO AND LAS MARIAS ISLANDS
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN CABO CORRIENTES LATE WED NIGHT
AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL TRAIN REACHES SHORE.

$$ 
LEWITSKY