000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262104 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE JAN 26 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTHWARD BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WED...AND INDUCE A GALE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY WED AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE LATE WED NIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THU AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 15-17 FT BY THU. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N84W TO 06N93W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 06N93W TO 08N100W TO 05N120W TO 04N130W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W...AND ALSO FROM 04N TO 07N W OF 137W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN IN COMBINATION WITH TROUGHING ALONG NW MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS IN THE GULF AS SAMPLED BY A RECENT ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND SPILL OUT THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF...AS WELL AS THROUGH AND ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA PASSES. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT IN THE GULF. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS HAVE TEMPORARILY DIMINISHED IN THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ANOTHER PULSE OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WIND FLOW IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 8 FT BY LATE TONIGHT. GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20 KT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING...BUILDING SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT BY WED MORNING. EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS THEREAFTER AND 3-5 FT SEAS. ELSEWHERE...1028 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 33N127W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS...AND ALSO TO THE SW TO 24N140W. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT S TO NEAR 31N127W BY WED AFTERNOON. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRES NEAR AND ALONG THE ITCZ IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE W CENTRAL WATERS. THESE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS NEAR 30N140W. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 19-21 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W THROUGH THE WEEK. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 11-15 FT ARE ACROSS THE NW CORNER WHICH WILL BE REINFORCED BY A NEW SET OF NW SWELL BY THU AFTERNOON...BUILDING COMBINED SEAS UP TO 18 FT BY THEN. THE EDGE OF SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER CURRENTLY REACHES 128W-130W...BUT WILL REACH TO 120W BY WED AFTERNOON...AND THEN TO 112W BY THU AFTERNOON. EXPECT ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA COAST BY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THEN THE REVILLAGIGEDO AND LAS MARIAS ISLANDS WED EVENING AND WED NIGHT. NE SWELL GENERATED BY GAP WINDS NEAR CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SHIFTED SW AWAY FROM THE SOURCE REGIONS. THIS FRESH NE SWELL IS COMBINING WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL TO BUILD SEAS TO 8 FT S OF 04N BETWEEN 100W AND 112W. THE SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE TONIGHT. $$ LEWITSKY