000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261544 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE JAN 26 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTHWARD BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WED...AND INDUCE A GALE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WED EVENING...THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI EVENING. THIS EVENT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WITH N-NE WINDS OF 25-35 KT EARLY ON WED NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 30-40 KT BY LATE WED NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 8-9 FT TO 9-13 FT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N95W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 06N95W TO 04N104W TO 08N110W TO 05N125W TO BEYOND 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... HIGH PRES OF 1026 MB CENTERED NEAR 35N125W HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE ITCZ REGION IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BELT OF FRESH TRADES ROUGHLY FROM 07N-11N W OF 120W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS NEAR 30N140W AND WILL DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS. LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...WAVE PERIODS OF 19-20 SECONDS...HAS SWEPT INTO THE NW PORTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 12-15 FT NW OF LINE FROM 30N135W TO 25N140W. SEAS OF 8-12 FT ARE ELSEWHERE W OF LINE FROM 30N132W TO 25N135W TO 20N131W TO 16N135W TO 08N122W TO 05N140W. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AFFECTING THE REVILLAGIGEDO AND LAS MARIAS ISLANDS WED EVENING AND WED NIGHT...BRINGING ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS TO THOSE COASTS. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL WILL REACH THE FAR NW CORNER ON THU MORNING WITH RESULTANT SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 18-19 FT NEAR 30N140W. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN IN COMBINATION WITH TROUGHING ALONG NW MEXICO WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN THE NORTH- CENTRAL SECTOR OF THE GULF BEGINNING THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 25-30 KT BY TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 9 FT NEAR 28N. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20- 25 KT BY WED AFTERNOON...PERSISTING TO EARLY THU MORNING. NE SWELL GENERATED BY STRONG N-NE GAP WINDS NEAR CENTRAL AMERICA THE PAST 2-3 DAYS IS SHIFTING SW AND AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE REGION. SEAS OF 8-9 FT ARE CURRENTLY NOTED S OF 08N W OF 95W TO A LINE FROM 08N108W TO 03.4S115W. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 6- 7 FT BY TONIGHT. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF AND FROM 10N-12N E 88W. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT EARLY WED AFTERNOON WITH SEAS LOWERING TO 6-7 FT. GULF OF PANAMA...A NARROW SWATH OF FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF WILL DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PULSING NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. $$ GR