000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261038 AAA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE JAN 26 2016 UPDATED ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTHWARD BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WED...AND INDUCE A GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WED EVENING...THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI EVENING. THIS EVENT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WITH N-NE WINDS OF 25-35 KT EARLY ON WED NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 30-40 KT BY LATE WED NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 8-9 FT TO 9-12 FT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...UPDATED TO INCLUDE NEW CONVECTION ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N100W TO 05N116W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 129W- 130W...AND ALSO W OF 138W. ...DISCUSSION... HIGH PRES OF 1026 MB CENTERED NEAR 32N127W HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 19N118W WITH HIGH PRES PRESENT N OF 17N W OF 115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND THE ITCZ REGION IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TRADES FROM 08N-11N W OF 120W WITH SEAS OF 7-8 FT. THE 1026 MB IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY WED WHILE STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY. THE HIGH PRES WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD S DURING THE REST OF WED AND INTO THU WHILE AND STRENGTHEN SOME MORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FRESH TRADES TO INCREASE TO STRONG INTENSIFY FROM 07N-11N W OF 122W WITH SEAS UP TO 8 FT. A COLD FRONT THAT RECENTLY MOVED TO ACROSS 30N140W HAS BECOME STATIONARY AS THE RIDGE HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE TO ITS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NW PORTIONS. LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL HAS SWEPT INTO THE NW PORTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE NW OF A LINE FROM 32N137W TO 26N140W PRODUCING SEAS OF 12-14 FT THERE. SEAS OF 8-12 FT ARE AHEAD THE 12-14 FT SEAS BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE AND A LINE FROM 32N133W TO 17N140W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE WED NIGHT...HOWEVER A NEW SET OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY LARGE AND DEEP LOW PRES STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS WED NIGHT AND THU WITH RESULTANT SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 18-19 FT NEAR 30N140W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 11N112W TO 06N117W MOVING NEAR 10 KT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE TROUGH. NE SWELL GENERATED BY STRONG N-NE GAP WINDS NEAR CENTRAL AMERICA THE PAST 2-3 DAYS IS SHIFTING W-SW AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE REGION ...AND GRADUALLY DAMPENING OUT WITH A SHRINKING AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS LOCATED S OF 09N BETWEEN 95W-109W. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 6-8 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND TO 6-7 FT TONIGHT. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG NE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT FROM 10N-11.5N E OF 88W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY THE 0248 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT EARLY WED AFTERNOON WITH SEAS LOWERING TO 5-6 FT. GULF OF PANAMA...A NARROW SWATH OF STRONG NE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE CULPRIT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHERN PART OF CENTRAL AMERICA SLACKENS. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE THE U.S. GREAT BASIN IN COMBINATION WITH TROUGHING ALONG NW MEXICO WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL SECTOR OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEGINNING THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL THEN SWEEP FURTHER S TO 23N BY LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT EXCEPT FOR SEAS TO 8 FT FROM 26N-28.5N. BY DAYBREAK WED...STRONG NW WINDS WILL BE CONFINED FROM 24N-28N AND ALSO TO THE N OF 30N WITH SEAS 5-7 FT EXCEPT TO 8 FT FROM 25N-26N...AND BY LATE WED NIGHT THE WINDS WILL BE CONFINED FROM 23N-27N WITH SEAS 5-6 FT. $$ AGUIRRE