000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260331
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
0405 UTC TUE JAN 26 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING
SOUTHWARD BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC WED AND
INITIATE ANOTHER HIGH WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WED
EVENING...THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI EVENING...WITH MAX GALES
TO 40-45 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 16-17 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N100W TO 05N116W TO 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA CENTERED AROUND 1025 MB HIGH
PRES NEAR 33N127W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH NE WINDS N OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 124W-130W. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS A
COLD FRONT ACROSS 30N10W MOVES INTO THE FAR NW WATERS TONIGHT.
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 14-15 FT DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS
LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SWEEPS INTO
NW PART OF THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT
AND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE. A NEW SET OF
LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY LARGE STORM
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS WED NIGHT AND
THU WITH SEAS TO 19-20 FT NEAR 30N140W.

NE SWELL GENERATED BY STRONG N-NE GAP WINDS NEAR CENTRAL AMERICA
THE PAST 2-3 DAYS IS SHIFTING W-SW AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE REGION
AND GRADUALLY DAMPENING OUT WITH A SHRINKING AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS
LOCATED S OF 10N BETWEEN 95W-110W. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
TO 6-7 FT IN THE AREA BY TUE. LINGERING WIND EVENTS IN PAPAGAYO
AND PANAMA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS
WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT BY TUE AFTERNOON. 

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE THE U.S. GREAT BASIN IN COMBINATION
WITH TROUGHING ALONG NW MEXICO WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW
WINDS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TUE
AND TUE NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN GULF WED. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 6-8 FT IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIF.

$$
MUNDELL