000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252135
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC MON JAN 25 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N96W TO 06N113W TO 03N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA CENTERED AROUND 1026 MB HIGH
PRES NEAR 33N126W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH NE WINDS N OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 124W-130W. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FAR NW WATERS THIS EVENING. FRESH S-SW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT
AND SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 12-15 FT AS LARGE LONG PERIOD NW
SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SWEEPS INTO NW PART OF THE AREA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE.

NE SWELL GENERATED BY STRONG N-NE GAP WINDS NEAR CENTRAL AMERICA
THE PAST 2-3 DAYS IS SHIFTING W-SW AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE REGION
AND GRADUALLY DAMPENING OUT WITH AN AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS LOCATED
S OF 13N BETWEEN 95W-115W. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 6-7
FT S OF 10N IN THIS AREA BY TUE. LINGERING GAP WIND EVENTS IN
PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT
OR LESS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT BY TUE AFTERNOON. 

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE THE U.S. GREAT BASIN IN COMBINATION
WITH TROUGHING ALONG NW MEXICO WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW
WINDS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TUE
AND TUE NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN GULF WED. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 6-8 FT IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIF.

STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTHWARD BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC WED AND INITIATE ANOTHER HIGH WIND EVENT IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WED AFTERNOON...THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRI EVENING...WITH MAX WINDS TO 40-45 KT AND SEAS TO 16-17 FT.

$$
MUNDELL