000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251519 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON JAN 25 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ERODING HIGH PRESSURE LIES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BEHIND A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRES AND THE ITCZ TO THE S CONTINUED TO BRING WINDS TO GALE FORCE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND SHOULD DIMINISH TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRES TO THE N WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS. A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WILL CLING CLOSE TO THE COAST EARLY TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WED MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM LOW PRES NEAR 04N95W 1009 MB TO 03N104W TO 06N113W TO 03N125W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 240 NM SE SEMICIRCLE...ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 99W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 99W-101W. ...DISCUSSION... THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY THE 1025 MB HIGH PRES CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33N126W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 125W-135W EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE WEAKENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W TODAY...SLACKENING THE PRES GRADIENT AND WEAKENING THE TRADES TO BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT. THE NEW COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE NW WATERS. S-SW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS IN THE FAR NW CORNER HAVE MET THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT...RESPECTIVELY...THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SWELL CONTINUES TO BUILD SEAS SOUTHEASTWARD. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AS HIGH AS 15 FT OVER NW WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE DISSIPATING FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL...WITH PERIODS IN THE 19-21 SECOND RANGE...IS EXPECTED TO REACH BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE LATE TUE AND PASS BAHIA MAGDALENA TUE MORNING. THIS SWELL COULD GENERATE HIGH SURF AND POSSIBLY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ENTERING AND EXITING HARBORS. THE LEADING EDGE OF A LONG-PERIOD SWELL TRAIN...WITH PERIODS IN THE 18-20 SECOND RANGE...IS EXPECTED TO REACH COSTA RICA AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TUE. A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE IN THIS NW SWELL LIES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA W OF 100W. THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SEAS OVER 8 FT SHIFTING S OF THE AREA BY WED MORNING. GULF OF PANAMA...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO FUNNEL 20-25 KT N WINDS THROUGH PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA AND SOUTHWARD TO 04N THIS MORNING. THE HIGH PRES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO SHRINK IN AREA BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA BY TUE MORNING. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE THE U.S. GREAT BASIN IN COMBINATION WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALS WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS BEGINNING TUE MORNING N OF 30N...THEN SHIFTING FROM 25N-30N BY EARLY TUE EVENING...AND ENCOMPASS NEARLY THE ENTIRE GULF BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING WHEN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT PRIMARILY FROM 24N-27N. $$ SCHAUER