000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250955
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC MON JAN 25 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES
LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND LOWER PRES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
AND COLOMBIA IS PRESENTLY BRINGING STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE
NE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE LATER THIS MORNING. BY
EARLY THIS EVENING NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE FORECAST WITHIN 30
NM OF A LINE FROM 11N86W TO 10.5N88W WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER TO 15-20 KT BY EARLY TUE AFTERNOON
...AND PULSE TO 20-25 KT LATE TUE NIGHT. NE SWELL FROM THIS
EVENT IS MIXING WITH THE NE SWELL LEFT OVER FROM THE RECENT GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM EVENT AND LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL RESULTING IN
SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT FROM 03N-14N BETWEEN 89W-96W. THIS
AREA OF SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO TUE WITH ONLY SMALL
POCKETS OF 8 FT SEAS EXPECTED AT THAT TIME.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM WEAK LOW PRES AT 04N95W TO 03N102W TO
06N114W TO 03N126W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 100W-102W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N128W
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA N OF 10N W OF ABOUT 110W. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT ENE TO NEAR 32N125W BY LATE TONIGHT...AND TO THE
ON TUE. A COLD FRONT NW OF THE AREA WILL APPROACH THE NW PART OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING PRECEDED BY
S-SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT. SEAS OF 9-14 FT IN NW SWELL WILL MOVE 
INTO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA BY EARLY TONIGHT WITH SEAS OF 
8-12 FT IN NW SWELL EXPECTED BETWEEN THE 9-14 FT SEAS AND A LINE
FROM 32N134W TO 25N140W. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS
IT REACHES FROM NEAR 32N138W TO 29N140W BY LATE TONIGHT WITH THE 
NW SWELL TRAIN PRODUCING SEAS OF 12-14 FT REACHING FROM 32N136W TO
27N140W...AND THE 8-12 FT SEAS REACHING BETWEEN THE SAME LINE 
AND ANOTHER LINE FROM 32N133W TO 21N140W. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE BY LATE TUE NIGHT. THE LARGE NW SWELL
IS FORECAST TO BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA AT
THAT TIME WITH MAX SEAS OF AROUND 13 FT.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE
1011 MB LOW...MENTIONED ABOVE UNDER THE ITCZ SECTION...TO NEAR
07N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN
WITHIN OF THE LOW AND TROUGH. ANOTHER TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG
112W/113W FROM 07N-13N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
NEAR THIS TROUGH. THE 1011 MB LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY W
THROUGH TUE WHILE WEAKENING.

AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0538 UTC DEPICTED MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 122W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH TRADES
REMAINING 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. 

...GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PANAMA...STRONG N-NE WINDS THROUGH PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF
PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 04N BETWEEN 79W-80W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT
WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AS PRES GRADIENT SUPPORTING
THE WINDS BEGINS TO SLACKEN WITH HIGH PRES OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WEAKENING. WINDS WEAKEN FURTHER TO 10-15 KT TUE
WITH SEAS LOWERING TO 4-5 FT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE THE U.S. GREAT BASIN
IN COMBINATION WITH TROUGHING ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS BEGINNING TUE MORNING N OF 30N...THEN
FROM 25N-30N BY EARLY TUE EVENING...AND ENCOMPASS JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE GULF BY LATE TUE NIGHT.

$$
AGUIRRE